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Clara Hermans ZkTO
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#PowellRemarks market place in #Price-Prediction
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#FOMCMeeting Rates Hold Steady, Focus Shifts to Future Cuts The Federal Reserve conclude Here's a concise article summarizing key points from a recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: --- ** its latest FOMC meeting, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at **5.25%-5.50%** for the seventh consecutive meeting. While inflation remains elevated, Chair Jerome Powell signaled growing confidence in the disinflationary trend, hinting at potential policy adjustments later this year. Key Takeaways: 1. **"Higher for Longer" Persists:** Rates remain at a 23-year high as the Fed seeks "greater confidence" inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target. 2. **Slower Balance Sheet Runoff (QT):** Starting in July, the Fed will reduce the pace of its Treasury securities roll-off from $60 billion to $25 billion monthly—a move to ease liquidity pressure without halting contraction. 3. **Dovish Shift in Projections:** Updated "dot plots" revealed **one projected rate cut in 2024** (down from three in March), but projections now show **four cuts in 2025** (up from three), reflecting cautious optimism. 4. **Inflation Progress Noted:** Powell acknowledged "modest further progress" on inflation but emphasized the need for sustained improvement, particularly in services. 5. **Labor Market Resilience:** The Fed sees the jobs market cooling gradually but remains strong overall, reducing urgency for immediate cuts. Market Reaction: * Stocks rose moderately on the QT taper and Powell’s acknowledgment of disinflation. * Treasury yields dipped slightly, particularly in the 2-10 year segment. * Traders increased bets on a **September rate cut** (now ~65% probability). Outlook: The Fed remains data-dependent. While a July cut is highly unlikely, **September is in play** if upcoming inflation (CPI, PCE) and employment reports align with the Fed’s evolving outlook. Patience remains the watchword, but the pivot discussion is now firmly underway.
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