6.19 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good morning, brothers. Since last week, the situation has been confusing, with significant changes every day. Yesterday, Trump said Iran wanted to negotiate, and the cryptocurrency market rose. Later, Iran said Trump was lying, and the cryptocurrency market fell again.

What is most frightening right now is that the U.S. may launch an attack on Iran, which would escalate this conflict, potentially involving Turkey, Russia, and others in the Iranian camp.

Insiders say the U.S. may attack Iran this weekend, and the Fordow nuclear facility will be the primary target of the attack.

Why does it have to be the U.S.?

Because Israel can't handle it, lacking the 30,000-pound massive bunker-busting bomb and the B-2 bombers that can carry it.

This capability is only available to the U.S.

This massive bunker-buster has undergone multiple tests during its development but has never been used on the battlefield.

Trump repeatedly asked relevant officials to confirm whether the bunker-busting bomb is effective, indicating that he himself is uncertain.

Without the bunker-buster, Iran's nuclear bases deep in the mountains cannot be completely destroyed.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve meeting decided not to cut interest rates in June, despite Trump’s constant criticism, but Powell stood firm: tariffs are driving up inflation, and interest rate cuts will have to wait. The delay in rate cuts is also negative for the cryptocurrency market. However, the meeting leaned towards being dovish, and there may be two rate cuts within the year, which holds some hope.

The situation has been negative for a week, but there are two particularly abnormal points:

(1) Bitcoin has been continuously flowing out of exchanges, and even Binance has not seen a large influx, indicating that the 'whales' are still bottom-fishing.

(2) In terms of ETFs, funds have been flowing in for over 7 days, especially BlackRock's fund, which sees inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars daily.

Therefore, the fact that Bitcoin has not fallen below 100,000 indicates that there are still people buying to bottom-fish.

We should not remain in cash; we should hold Bitcoin primarily to get through this difficult period of war and conflict. Once the Iran issue is resolved, Bitcoin is likely to break new highs. Hold onto your spot and endure until dawn.

This analysis is for reference only, and adults must take responsibility for their own decisions.

Investment carries risks; please invest with spare money and think independently.