The latest decision from the Federal Reserve has been released—almost without surprises:
1. Interest rates remain unchanged, no rate cuts in the short term.
2. There is expected to be space for "two rate cuts" this year, totaling 50 basis points.
As soon as this operation came out, Trump got anxious again and, as usual, went on a rant: No rate cut? Why don't I take over the Fed?
My view is simple: The Federal Reserve has actually entered a preventative rate-cutting cycle since last year, not because of major issues, but to release a little space in advance.
This year's pace has slowed down, not because they are turning hawkish, but because their foundation is still relatively stable. Looking back at history, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve generally fall into three categories:
1. Preventative: Addressing risk signs early.
2. Stock market collapse: Forced by the market.
3. The economy can't hold up anymore: Employment and inflation are both declining.
Currently, none of these three scenarios exist, so slowing down on rate cuts is reasonable.
Market expectations are also starting to adjust, from "certain cuts in the first half of the year" to gradually becoming "maybe take a look in September."
In summary: Rate cuts are on the way, but there won't be a sudden stop. The Federal Reserve is not here to save the market; it is here to maintain stability.
Only those with patience will laugh last.