Wrote a long article.
Having been in the crypto circle for so long, you ask if there are deterministic opportunities. Yes, for example, the currently low-priced CAKE is a big cycle opportunity I see.
But many small investments and speculations. In my opinion, it’s not that big in absolute terms. It’s a bit like blackjack, a probability game. High-level players try to improve the odds as much as possible by familiarizing themselves with the gameplay, strategies, luck, and controlling chips.
$ZKJ I have been in for 2 days. The entry positions and leverage for the first and second grid long orders are both very good. The third and fourth orders are very aggressive. All have stop losses.
Now there are still two long grid orders left. I am bullish on $ZKJ. There is a relatively strong bullish logic.
Essentially, these orders are just a logical exploration of different trading strategies and attempts to explore short and long-term trends of $ZKJ.
Before reading this article: You need to understand: 1 Alpha point system rules. Alpha's unlimited advocacy for 'trading volume' and the point earning system, and financial marking LP annual incentives are prerequisites for this event. Not only are some $KOGE, $ZKJ users and project parties affected. There are also users who only think about making small profits from high trading volumes driven by Alpha's scoring team.
2 Alpha airdrop participants are among the 'main scoring currencies' that were quickly selected based on cost comparison, including $ZKJ.
Why go long on $ZKJ. I looked at the event reports from both the KOGE and $ZKJ teams and their associated team members regarding their attribution of responsibility and third-party address analysis.
Of course, it also includes: @Tiancheng_Xie’s personal remarks and perspective on tweets.
I won’t take screenshots or provide links for the above. This is something investors can completely understand on their own.
From my personal standpoint, I tend to think that @PolyhedraZ's official report is more valuable.
It was mentioned that multiple coincidences occurred continuously before the 15th, jointly driving this chain decline.
The two key points I focused on in the report:
1 KOGE/ZKJ is the main fuse. KOGE did not have enough USDT to support the selling pressure on the day of the incident. The $ZKJ with contracts and the larger, broader USDT LP $ZKJ -UST is the profit pool for $KOGE exiters who shorted $ZKJ and dumped it on the market.
2 Crash period: Wintermute's transfer to CEX address. 3,416,579 $ZKJ on Ethereum remains 22,688.
Wintermute address: 0xf8191D98ae98d2f7aBDFB63A9b0b812b93C873AA
I focus on these two points.
The fundamentals and price trends of PolyhedraZ, based on my observations, are above the pass line in the crypto circle, able to score 80 points as a VC project.
In terms of product attributes: Polyhedra's products, apart from bridges, seem to be relatively distant from mainstream users for now. This is just my opinion.
Project history: relatively large-scale airdrops, launching on OKX without directly launching on BN, the VC coin market in the past two years, giving ZKsync the name of ZK.
As a practitioner, I can roughly estimate the difficulty of the following event based on its product direction, token unlocking speed, and the structure of chips in the early and late stages: opening at $1, there was a significant proportion of airdrops in the early stage; maintaining above $1 for most of 2024, and maintaining at $2-3 after being listed on ALPHA at the end of last year.
The project party is definitely maintaining the coin price to a considerable extent. There are many things, numerical aspects that I cannot provide evidence for. I can only rely on my instincts. I can only say that if a product like ZKJ starts from an airdrop at $1, followed by continuous unlocking and the impact of the renaming incident, and the coin price performance and ecological activity of ZKsync itself affects confidence in ZK.
Do not pay too much attention to the price of your own token. It’s already around $0.2, $0.1.
Asking is just about feeling and experience. There’s no way to find evidence for this.
Of course, who doubts who provides evidence. I only think logically: $ZKJ is listed on Alpha, has trading volume on Alpha, has BN contracts, and the price has oscillated upwards over the past year. It’s not very cost-effective for the project party to participate in wrongdoing at this time, and it doesn’t really make sense to protect the token price for this profit.
In simpler terms, the listing rules for BN are not determined by anyone other than the List department. But I personally look at it from experience, which is relatively in line with the requirements for spot listing. At this time, given the sunk cost, it’s not worth cutting a hand. I’m talking about the team.
But other market participants, including market makers, do not care about these. The interests of various roles in the market are often not aligned, and each has its own calculations.
Polyhedra's report clearly describes the actions and addresses of market maker Wintermute. It doesn’t explicitly point it out. But when the coin price was $1.9, it is well known what Wintermute was doing when transferring large amounts of coins into CEX until the last issuance of tokens into the exchange. Whatever they do, it can't be to buy the coin.
Currently, I have a relatively large position on the $ZKJ grid long order, which is mainly due to the reasons mentioned above.
Personally, I think the risk points are: the overall market. Other: none.
