Crypto Circle Academician: Is Ethereum's drop on June 19 a 'Vacuum Drop' or a 'Trap for Short Sellers'? What to do if you're caught in a long position? Latest market analysis and reference suggestions
Ethereum's current price is 2470, and it's currently 1:30 AM Beijing time. The bearish trend is quite evident. As for whether it's a vacuum or a trap for short sellers, there's no need to overthink it. Since the price has been repeatedly pulled back and faced resistance at 2550, we can choose to go south and test the position, as the market has entered a trading range. The main force's continuous high selling actions are very apparent, indicating that the momentum for testing key support downward has begun. What we need to do is to follow the trend. Those without a southern position can wait for an opportunity to see if it will pull back to around 2550,
The daily K-line has a high of 2550 and a low of 2465. The EMA trend indicator shows a contraction in the market, with trend support now at 2380. The MACD has been reducing volume and increasing positions for several days, with the DIF and DEA descending from a high position to the 0 axis. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands is at 2570, and the lower track support is at 2380, coinciding with the trend support to form a double support. If it does not break, we can consider moving north from here; before that, the focus is on moving south.
The short-term head and shoulders pattern on the four-hour K-line has completed. The trend indicator has formed a double death cross trend in the short term. Some traders say that a double bottom structure can form in the short term, allowing for a northward position test. However, the K-line has already broken below the trend indicator, and a double bottom has not formed on the trend indicator line. Generally speaking, such a double bottom is ineffective, and the risk of moving north outweighs the reward. Of course, testing the position is still an option; if it breaks the previous low of 2450, one can exit. My viewpoint is quite simple: follow the trend. Currently, the market clearly shows a bearish trend, so the best opportunity is to move south when the resistance level is at 2550. If it breaks the resistance level of 2550, just bring a stop loss along.
Short-term reference: Safety first. Remember that the market is never 100% certain, so always carry a stop loss. Safety is the priority; small losses and large gains are the goal.
Southward testing points are from 2550 to 2580, with a defense at 2600, a stop loss of 30 points, and a target range of 2500 to 2450. If broken, look at 2400 to 2350.
Northward testing points are from 2380 to 2350, with a defense at 2310, a stop loss of 30 points, and a target range of 2430 to 2470. If broken, look at 2510 to 2550.
Specific operations should be based on real-time market data. For more detailed information, you can consult the author. The publication of this article has a delay; suggestions are for reference only, and the risk is to be borne by oneself $ETH