The cryptocurrency market today demonstrates cautious optimism, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future policy.
🔹 Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above $104,000, consolidating in the $100–110k range for several weeks. This indicates that major players continue to hold positions, waiting for an important impulse. Bitcoin remains in an upward channel, and the 200-day moving average on the daily chart supports the bullish scenario. The technical resistance level is $110,000. Breaking through this zone could trigger a sharp jump to $120–130k.
🔹 Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,500 and shows the characteristic 'cup and handle' formation. This is a classic signal for the continuation of the upward trend. A consolidation above $2,750 could trigger a rise to $3,000–3,200, and in the case of a sustained trend — even higher. ETH is increasingly being used in DeFi and institutional products, especially after the approval of the Ethereum ETF.
📈 The technical picture is positive:
BTC and ETH are above the 50- and 200-day MAs, RSI is in a neutral zone, and volumes are accumulating at supports. This creates a favorable basis for impulsive growth, especially if the macroeconomics gives the green light.
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🏛️ Fundamental drivers
✅ Regulations:
The U.S. Senate approved the GENIUS Act, which introduces clear and strict rules for stablecoins. Now projects like USDC and USDT must have 100% reserves, undergo audits, and disclose reports. This strengthens trust in crypto from traditional companies — Walmart, Visa, PayPal have already started using stablecoins for payments 💸
✅ Institutional interest:
There is a steady inflow of capital into cryptocurrency ETFs: BTC receives an average of $200+ million per week, ETH — about $10–15 million.
The launch of an ETF for XRP and Solana is also actively discussed. The Canadian exchange has already approved the XRP-ETF — this is an important step for the acceptance of crypto in the global financial sector.
✅ Macroeconomics:
Inflation in the U.S. is decreasing, and expectations are rising in the market that the Fed will start lowering rates this fall. This positively affects all risk assets, including crypto. Investors are looking for alternatives to the dollar and stocks, and BTC with ETH again look like reliable assets for hedging.
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🧠 What's up with the alts?
Altcoins are preparing for a new growth cycle. The following are of interest:
🔹 Solana (SOL) — institutional interest is increasing, the network is developing, high activity in DeFi and NFT. Growth potential to $200–300 in the 6–12 month horizon.
🔹 XRP — after winning the case against the SEC, the asset is back in focus for investors. Analysts' forecast — $5 by 2025.
🔹 Chainlink, ADA, DOT, AVAX — showing signs of accumulation. In the case of overall market growth — they could show 2–3x from current levels.
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📌 Summary and recommendations
📍 BTC is stable and preparing for a breakout. Breaking $110,000 will be an important technical and psychological level.
📍 ETH is forming a bullish pattern and may lead the market.
📍 Macro-level conditions and regulatory stance are favorable.
📍 Institutions are back — the market no longer looks speculative, this is a new asset class.
📍 Alts — riskier, but with higher potential. The approach with partial exposure and strict risk management is optimal.
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🛡️ What to do for investors:
— Keep the core portfolio in BTC and ETH
— Monitor breakout levels: $110,000 for BTC, $2,750 for ETH
— Diversify into promising altcoins, but without fanaticism
— Avoid overload and adhere to risk management rules
🚀 The market is at the start of a new cycle. Position wisely — and don't chase instant profits. The biggest gains come to the patient 🙌
