FOMC Meeting: Will Bitcoin's price head to $100,000 or $110,000 as the interest rate cut decision approaches?
Analysts' forecasts suggest that the price of Bitcoin may drop below $100,000 or rise above $110,000 depending on the tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during today's FOMC meeting.
Key Points:
1. Impact of the FOMC Meeting:
- The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus will be on future guidance regarding rate cuts.
- If Powell takes a hawkish stance, Bitcoin's price may drop below $100,000.
- If his stance is dovish, it may stimulate a rise in the financial market and push Bitcoin above $110,000.
2. Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows:
- Despite recent fluctuations, Bitcoin ETF funds have maintained positive net inflows for 5 days, totaling $1.464 billion since June 9.
- On-chain data indicates that short-term investors are selling, while long-term investors are holding their positions.
3. External Influencing Factors:
- Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel and their impact on oil prices (rising over 10%) may increase inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower rate cut expectations.
4. Forecasts Based on M2 Money Supply:
- Analysis of Bitcoin's correlation with the global money supply M2 shows an accuracy of up to 80%, indicating a possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of the year if this trend continues.
- Some analysts predict a short-term correction to $100,000 before a new jump to $130,000 by August/September 2025.
Summary:
Today is a crucial day for the Bitcoin market with the FOMC meeting, where Jerome Powell's tone could determine the price direction between dropping to $100,000 or rising to $110,000. Influencing factors include institutional flows through ETFs, geopolitical tensions, and Bitcoin's correlation with global market liquidity (M2).