Recently, the market has been turbulent, with the conflict between Iran and Israel continuing to escalate, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision looming, the crypto asset market is once again facing an 'extreme test'.
Bitcoin trend: high-level volatility is difficult to resolve, and the rebound is unlikely to last.
Bitcoin showed weak performance yesterday, experiencing a sharp rebound in the morning but quickly dominated by bears in the afternoon, with the market continuing to decline for 13 hours. After the U.S. stock market opened, the downward trend intensified, reaching a low of $103,371 (Binance spot), and slightly rebounding in the early morning, currently hovering around $104,500.
From a technical structure perspective, the daily line shows a clear bearish candle with long upper and lower shadows, and the trading volume increased by one-third compared to the previous day, indicating that the battle between bulls and bears continues to be fierce. Although there was an attempt to break through the MA30 average line, it ultimately rose and fell back again, retesting the EMA52 average line, which gained temporary support.
However, one should be wary that the support of EMA52 is gradually weakening, and multiple failed attempts to rise have quickly diminished the rebound momentum. Overall, it is difficult to say that the short-term rebound has ended the adjustment; if the support at 102,800 is lost, it may trigger a new round of rapid decline.
Resistance above: 106,800 - 110,300 (phase pressure)
Strong resistance: 120,400 - 130,000
Support below: 102,800 / 97,670 / 95,860 / 93,530
Ethereum trend: lacking an independent market, continuing to fluctuate with Bitcoin.
Ethereum's trend closely follows Bitcoin. The daily line shows a small bearish candle with upper and lower shadows. MACD indicates that downward momentum is strengthening, and the short-term adjustment has not yet ended. It is currently operating within a wide fluctuation range. If BTC continues to weaken, ETH may test the support at around 2320.
📌 Support references: 2450, 2320, 2200, 2130
📌 Pressure observation: 2680-2770, strong resistance at 2960-3060
📌 If EMA52 can be held, there is still room for a rebound within the range; otherwise, it may further decline.
Macro event one: Tensions in the Middle East, U.S. military may intervene.
According to reports from Israeli media, the U.S. may join military action against Iran as early as Tuesday evening. Iran responded strongly, stating that if U.S. troops intervene, they will retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices may surge to $120, pushing U.S. CPI up by about 2.5 percentage points, thereby triggering an inflation-interest rate 'death spiral'.
Macro event two: approaching Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the market is hard to be optimistic.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on June 19 at 2 a.m. (Beijing time), and the market uniformly expects the rate to remain unchanged in the 4.25%-4.5% range. The current expectation for a rate cut in July is only 14.5%, while September's rate cut has become the main focus of market speculation.
More importantly, the 'dot plot' released this time and Powell's speech content. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, combined with the escalating risks of the Middle East conflict, the market may enter a prolonged state of stagnation.
The market mouthpiece previously stated that 'if not for the tariff issue, the Federal Reserve could consider a rate cut', implying that policy focus is no longer solely reliant on inflation data but also considers geopolitical and trade risks.
Trading strategy recommendation: pay attention to position management and be wary of black swans.
In the current complex macro environment, the market is not truly driven by technical indicators, but rather by position control and risk management. If the market continues to weaken, it is highly likely to evolve into a waterfall decline triggered by a 'black swan' event.
My view is: the current news is generally bearish, and the market is struggling to rise. If there is a rebound, one should still short at the highs. The current market manipulation seems to be orchestrated by institutions, lacking real buying support, with extremely poor liquidity, so do not easily take positions.
In the short term, if BTC loses 102800 and ETH breaks 2320, it will likely trigger a collective correction of mainstream coins. If the market stabilizes after hitting the bottom, coupled with Powell's 'softening' rate cut, there is hope for a new round of rebound or the start of a main rising wave.
The 'endgame' of this round of market will revolve around two core variables: one is Powell's interest rate guidance, and the other is the dynamics of Trump and the Middle East situation. At this stage, it is more suitable for swing trading, managing light positions and strictly controlling risks, rather than blindly bottom-fishing or chasing highs.