✍️Polymarket Bets on U.S. Strike Against Iran¡ Betting Heats Up on Polymarket Amid Israel-Iran Escalation. Will the U.S. Strike Iran? Polymarket Says It’s a Coin Toss!

👉As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, traders on Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market, have been closely wagering on a possible U.S. military strike against Iran before the end of June.

👉On Monday, June 16, the odds of such a strike spiked to 67%, reflecting heightened anxieties over military escalation.

👉However, the figure has since dropped back to 50%, illustrating just how volatile sentiment remains in the face of uncertain international developments.

✍️Betting Heats Up on Polymarket Amid Israel-Iran Escalation

👉The betting activity intensified in response to Israel’s recent airstrikes and drone attacks against Iran.

👉Following those strikes, Bitcoin dropped by 4% to $103,556, highlighting how interconnected financial markets remain with geopolitical events.

👉The Polymarket contract, titled “Will the U.S. strike Iran before July 1st?”, initially opened on March 31 with a 35% chance.

👉Over the next two and a half months, that probability nearly doubled as tensions grew.

One “yes” bettor on Polymarket explained their rationale:

👉“Trump said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Iran has one nuclear facility only U.S. bombers can reach. The U.S. has sent fighter jets and ships to the Middle East.”

✍️Polymarket: Prediction as a Pulse of Public Sentiment

👉While Polymarket’s contracts are not a guarantee of events, they function as a real-time sentiment index, aggregating the opinions of thousands of participants based on news, military movements, and diplomatic statements.

✍️According to Polymarket,

👉“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society.”

👉Polymarket also emphasized how these markets provide valuable insights during crises, saying:

👉“After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.”

👉At its peak, the “yes” option for U.S. military action reached 67%, only to slide down to 50% by midweek. That 17-point swing reflects how quickly public sentiment can change in a volatile geopolitical environment.

One “no” voter even took a humorous jab at the shifting tide:

👉“Be kind and ask a yes holder how their day was.”

✍️Will the U.S. Strike Iran? Polymarket Says It’s a Coin Toss

👉Despite strong rhetoric from President Donald Trump, who reiterated his stance that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” no formal military action or statement has been released from the administration.

👉As the end of June approaches, Polymarket traders appear divided, suggesting a 50/50 probability that the U.S. will engage in direct military action.

👉Whether the “yes” voters will be proven right remains uncertain, but the prediction market is clear: time is running out to avoid a confrontation