$ETH Evening Thoughts:
The key support at 2550 for the second pancake has still been broken. It was quite difficult to break through the resistance at 2550 before, and if it breaks down this time, it will be just as hard to break through 2550 again.
Yesterday, it even pierced through 2500, and this time if it doesn't create a big pit, there is still a gap above 2900-3200 that hasn't been filled; can it still fill that? Looking at the current situation, it seems quite challenging to fill it.
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Talking with charts: The triangle convergence pattern at the hourly level for the second pancake has reached its end, and a direction is about to emerge. If it breaks below the lower boundary of the triangle convergence and can't recover in time, the second pancake will continue to drop. Unless the second pancake shows a false breakdown below this triangle convergence's lower boundary and recovers back into the triangle convergence, the risk of decline can only be alleviated.
For the second pancake, a breakout with volume at 2528 should be chased for a rebound; if it breaks down below 2505 with volume, then one should chase it downwards. Pay attention to changes in volume and set stop losses properly.
At the hourly level, if the second pancake can break and hold above 2508, look upwards to 2543-2584; if it can't hold above 2508, the second pancake will continue to weaken.
At the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 2483 and can't recover, look down to 2435-2380; if 2435 breaks, then don't hold any hope for the second pancake anymore.
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Continuing to look at the chart: The Fibonacci 1:1 retracement target position at the hourly level for the second pancake has already hit 2461 yesterday and has shown a rebound. If the rebound can't break through the 61.8 level, then it won't be useful either.
The positions indicated by the white arrows in the chart are all resistances for the second pancake; it's too difficult, each step is a hurdle.
If the dot plot in the early morning shows less than 2 rate cuts, and Powell speaks hawkishly, the second pancake will directly touch the 1.618 position at 2365 or even lower. Before the early morning dot plot announcement and Powell's speech, try to close any positions you have; otherwise, it is easy to get stopped out or even face liquidation due to sharp moves. Heed the advice, eat well, and disperse the meeting.