Bitcoin is still at risk of falling further and needs to stay above $102,000 to keep a potential recovery momentum going, according to analysts.
In a market report on Tuesday, Bitfinex analysts said:
“If Bitcoin can hold above the $102,000-$103,000 zone for an extended period, it would indicate that the market is effectively absorbing the selling pressure.”
Bitcoin is a bold bet with the potential to yield big returns
Analysts noted that “some downside risks remain” for Bitcoin, especially amid macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. However, they also stressed that the current environment presents a high-risk investment opportunity with attractive rewards for investors willing to take the risk.
“The market is currently exhibiting a high-risk, high-reward pattern and if bulls regain confidence, the uptrend could resume,” analysts said. Meanwhile, prominent trader Matthew Hyland noted that “while price action remains volatile, the overall trend for BTC remains bullish.”
Optimism that Bitcoin will retest its all-time high of $111,940 – set last week – is growing, especially after the level was breached amid dozens of Israeli airstrikes on Iran on Thursday night.
Immediately after news of the attack broke, Bitcoin plummeted 2.8% within 90 minutes, from $106,042 to $103,053, before recovering slightly to $104,974 at the time of writing.
Despite the macro uncertainties, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract strong inflows, showing that investor confidence has not waned. According to data from Farside, June 16 marked the sixth consecutive session of positive net inflows for these funds, with a total value of $412.2 million in just one day.
Bitcoin won't fall as fast as last year
Even if Bitcoin continues to correct, the decline this time around may not be as deep as past declines, according to Bitfinex analysts, who point out that in August, Bitcoin plunged about 20% in just 10 days, bottoming out at $53,991.
This coming July will kick off the third quarter – typically the weakest period of the year for Bitcoin in terms of average returns, according to data from CoinGlass stretching back to 2013.
Still, some analysts remain optimistic, arguing that the current market is mirroring patterns similar to previous “capitulation” periods — which often precede sharp reversals following aggressive sell-offs.
However, not everyone is convinced of the recovery scenario. Some believe that Bitcoin may have reached a temporary top. Trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the X platform on Tuesday:
“Bitcoin is struggling to break above its historical highs and has now entered a stagnant state.”
Daan said Bitcoin’s long-term trend is “very clear,” but he is watching the bull market support band to determine Bitcoin’s next move.
“This cycle has been going on for quite a while, so holding the bull market support band will be crucial to sustaining the momentum of this cycle,” Daan said.
EY strategist and trader Danny Marques offered a more optimistic outlook, claiming “the current move has plenty of room to expand structurally, momentum-wise and psychologically.”
“Bitcoin hasn't even entered the euphoria zone yet,” Marques said.
However, although many crypto market participants — including Strategy’s Michael Saylor — expect Bitcoin to avoid another crypto winter, some analysts remain skeptical.
“It is very likely that such a winter will follow this bull market,” said trader Rekt Capital.