Based on market information and institutional analysis as of June 18, 2025, tonight (June 19) at 2:30, the focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be on interest rate decisions, dot plot adjustments, and Powell's statements. Combining current market expectations and potential impacts, the following is a comprehensive analysis:

One, Market Expectations and Key Points

1. Interest rate decisions are highly likely to remain unchanged: The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the fourth consecutive time, mainly due to recent moderate inflation data (CPI, PPI) and a steady cooling of the job market. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut in June is close to 0%, and the probability in September is about 76%.

2. Dot Plot may become a core variable

- Expected number of rate cuts this year: The March dot plot shows that most officials support two rate cuts; if two officials lower their forecasts in this meeting, the median may drop to one rate cut, releasing a hawkish signal; if it remains at two, it will lean dovish.

- Economic forecast adjustments: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will lower the GDP growth rate for 2025 (possibly to 0.9%), raise the core PCE inflation (possibly to 3.3%) and the unemployment rate (to 4.5%).

3. Potential impact of Powell's statements

- Dovish signals: If 'data dependency' is emphasized and future rate cuts are suggested, it could boost risk assets (such as US stocks and gold).

- Hawkish signals: If prioritizing anti-inflation is reiterated, or the dollar strengthens and US Treasury yields rebound.

Two, Analysis of Market Impact

(1) If dovish signals are released (positive)

- US Stocks: May rise, as expectations for rate cuts stimulate growth stocks.

- Gold: If the dollar weakens, the gold price may break through $3500/ounce.

- Forex: Non-USD currencies like the Euro and Yen may rebound.

Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin will rebound around 106

(2) If hawkish signals are released (negative)

- US Stocks: Short-term pressure, especially on tech stocks and growth sectors.

- Dollar: May rebound to the 101-102 range, with technical signs of stabilization.

- US Treasuries: Yields may rebound, and 10-year US Treasuries may break through 4.5%.

Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin will first drop to around 101

Three, Other Influencing Factors

1. Geopolitical issues and tariff policies: Middle Eastern conflicts and Trump's statements on increasing tariffs on automobiles may push up oil prices, indirectly affecting inflation expectations. If the situation escalates, risk aversion may support the dollar.

2. Divergence of institutional views

- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley: Believe that the rate cut cycle has begun, with possible cuts of 3-4 times this year.

- CICC, UBS: Expect only 1-2 rate cuts this year, emphasizing data dependency.

Four, Comprehensive Judgment

- Short-term Neutral to Bullish: Although no rate cuts have been priced in, if the dot plot maintains expectations for two rate cuts or Powell's statements are dovish, it may become a short-term positive catalyst.

- Long-term uncertainty: The transmission effect of tariff policies and the risk of inflation rebound may force the Fed to delay rate cuts, requiring vigilance regarding policy shifts in the second half of the year.

Five, Investor Strategy Recommendations

1. Gold: If the gold price stabilizes at $3400, targets of $3500-3600 can be focused on.

2. Dollar: There is a possibility of a rebound technically, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish; it is recommended to hedge or diversify.

3. Stock Market: Focus on the volatility of tech stocks and defensive sectors (such as utilities).

4. Cryptocurrency Market: If Bitcoin stabilizes around 106, it will continue to rise to around 11!

Conclusion: If tonight's meeting releases dovish signals (such as maintaining rate cut expectations), it may provide short-term benefits for risk assets; conversely, be vigilant regarding market corrections. It is recommended that investors flexibly adjust strategies based on Powell's speech details and changes in the dot plot.