📊 Global Rate Cuts Accelerate: Technical Signals Flashing Caution

According to data from BofA and Bloomberg, 15 policy rate cuts were recorded globally in May 2025 — the fastest monthly pace since the COVID panic (Mar/2020), and only below the Global Financial Crisis peak (Dec/2008).

🔍 Technical Breakdown of the Chart:

The spike in rate cuts is forming a sharp peak pattern, historically associated with crisis periods. This is a key early signal for macro-focused investors monitoring global monetary cycles.

Since late 2023, the monthly cut count has steadily increased, indicating a structural pivot in global central bank behavior.

📉 Diverging Policy Paths:

Europe led the easing trend with 8 rate cuts in May, including moves from the ECB, SNB, and Riksbank — all pointing to rapidly deteriorating growth prospects.

The U.S. Federal Reserve remains on hold, creating a clear divergence, much like late 2018 to early 2019 — a period that triggered severe volatility across emerging markets and risk assets.

💱 Direct Market Implications:

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hold firm due to the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, exerting upward pressure on USD and downward pressure on currencies of easing economies.

Short-end U.S. yields remain elevated, while yields in Europe and Asia are compressing — further widening the global rate differential and impacting capital flows.

📌 Strategic Outlook:

The acceleration in rate cuts may pave the way for broader fiscal stimulus cycles in 2025–2026 if economic stagnation deepens.

Investors should prepare for a scenario where a synchronized global pivot is unlikely unless the Fed joins in, trapping risk assets in a regime of capital outflows and defensive USD positioning.