Ethereum is shorting at a high today for three reasons:
First, from the 4-hour structure chart, Ethereum is currently at $2531, being suppressed by all moving averages, which is a typical bearish arrangement. The current trading volume is sluggish, far below the average line. This kind of shrinking bearish trend is very dangerous, just like a tightly stretched rubber band that may snap and fall at any moment.
Second, when the price breaks out with reduced volume, it often accompanies net outflow of main funds. From June 14-17, it continuously closed below the support level of 2550, and yesterday's rebound to this position was pushed back down, confirming the resistance is effective. Under this structure, the MA30 has completely transformed from support to a strong resistance. The area around 2540-2551 has gathered triple resistance (MA30 + previous low + volume shrinkage), and it is very difficult to break through without sudden positive news. The previous low at 2379 is still 5% away from the current price, and combined with the background of continuous outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the risk of ETH falling further is greater than the probability of an independent rise.
Third, the funding rate is still negative, indicating that the bears have not exited, meaning the decline is not over. Ethereum's Gas fees have dropped to a 3-day low, and on-chain activity is sluggish, which is more bearish than the technical aspect. However, if one must find a glimmer of hope, it is that the weekly support at 2390 may trigger algorithmic trading to buy the dip.
In summary, my personal strategy is to prepare to go short near the 2550 position of Ethereum. Looking down to 2480, I will observe the response of my weekly situation, of course, everything still needs to be based on the actual situation!
