Bitcoin's decline below $104,000 has provided a potential reversal signal towards new record levels in terms of technical indicators and on-chain data, highlighting critical support points and investor behaviors.
Market dynamics show that long-term investors are beginning to give way to medium-term investors; this reflects a variable investor sentiment within macroeconomic uncertainties.
According to COINOTAG data, a combination of on-chain indicators and technical analyses suggests that Bitcoin could hit a low of around $102,000; this prepares the ground for a strong upward movement.
Bitcoin has dropped below $104,000 ahead of the FOMC decisions; technical and on-chain data highlight a 25% chance of an increase towards $130,000 by the end of the second quarter.
Critical Support for Bitcoin Amid Market Fluctuations: The $102,000 Region
Bitcoin's recent price correction around $103,300 reflects the cautious sentiment in the markets ahead of the FOMC's interest rate decisions. Technical analyses indicate that there is an important support band between $102,000 and $104,000; past order blocks and liquidity clusters are concentrated in this region. The tightening of the Bollinger Bands in this range suggests that volatility may increase in the short term. The middle band level is expected to act as resistance around $106,000, and if this level is surpassed, Bitcoin could record a rapid rise to $112,000.
On-Chain Data Shows the Profit-Taking Tendencies of Medium-Term Investors
Glassnode and Bitcoin Vector's on-chain analyses reveal that medium-term investors with a 6-12 month horizon have recently realized significant profits, accounting for 83% of total profit taking. This indicates a decline in the influence of long-term investors holding for 12 months or more, which previously drove profit-taking. However, long-term investors maintain a cautious confidence in Bitcoin's medium and long-term potential. Metrics like the MVRV Z-score and Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) show that market participants tend to take selective profit rather than panic selling, thus strengthening the likelihood of a sustainable upward trend.
The Impact of Macroeconomic Developments and Market Sentiment on Bitcoin Price
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and upcoming FOMC decisions have triggered a risk-averse tendency among investors. Bitcoin futures liquidations exceeding $434 million reveal that the recent decline was driven by leverage. In contrast, the Coinbase Premium Index shows ongoing demand from US investors in the spot market, providing positive signals. This mismatch between spot demand and volatility in the futures market indicates a cautious optimism in the market.
Key Levels to Watch and Possible Price Scenarios
Analysts emphasize that maintaining the Short-Term Holder (STH) Real Price above $98,000 is critical for sustaining the bullish trend. A strong break below this support level may lead to a deeper correction towards around $90,000. On the other hand, a close above $106,748 would strengthen Bitcoin's chances of moving towards $112,000 and $130,000 by the end of the second quarter. It is crucial for investors to closely monitor these critical price points to accurately predict Bitcoin's direction in the coming weeks.
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