加密鸿宇
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Today's Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
Today, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing high volatility expectations influenced by multiple macro and regulatory factors. The Federal Reserve's meeting early this morning is the core variable: if the dot plot indicates 1-2 rate cuts within the year and Powell releases dovish signals, it will directly boost risk assets, pushing Bitcoin to break through the resistance level of $105,500 and triggering altcoin rotation; conversely, if a hawkish stance is maintained and anti-inflation is emphasized, BTC may test the support at $102,500, putting pressure on the altcoin sector.
On the regulatory front, the SEC has delayed the Franklin XRP and Solana spot ETF applications, which is a short-term negative for related cryptocurrencies, but attention should be paid to subsequent application dynamics. The Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act paves the way for the legalization of stablecoins, and if the House follows suit, it will accelerate the integration of cryptocurrency payments and the DeFi ecosystem, benefiting compliant projects in the long run.
Technically, BTC has broken below the moving average support on the daily chart, continuing the bearish trend, but there is strong support around the $103,000 level. The 4-hour chart shows weakening rebound momentum, and caution is needed for selling pressure in the $105,500-$106,500 range during the day. ETH is performing weaker, and if the $2,480 support is lost, it may accelerate the decline towards $2,280, with resistance to watch at $2,540-$2,570 above.
Regarding altcoins, despite a significant rebound the day before, risks from geopolitical conflicts and ETF delays still exist. Before liquidity improves, caution is advised against a “one-day” rally. It is recommended that investors focus on short-term operations within the BTC/ETH range while remaining cautious in the altcoin sector, waiting for clear signals from the Federal Reserve meeting and SEC policy before positioning.
Today, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing high volatility expectations influenced by multiple macro and regulatory factors. The Federal Reserve's meeting early this morning is the core variable: if the dot plot indicates 1-2 rate cuts within the year and Powell releases dovish signals, it will directly boost risk assets, pushing Bitcoin to break through the resistance level of $105,500 and triggering altcoin rotation; conversely, if a hawkish stance is maintained and anti-inflation is emphasized, BTC may test the support at $102,500, putting pressure on the altcoin sector.
On the regulatory front, the SEC has delayed the Franklin XRP and Solana spot ETF applications, which is a short-term negative for related cryptocurrencies, but attention should be paid to subsequent application dynamics. The Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act paves the way for the legalization of stablecoins, and if the House follows suit, it will accelerate the integration of cryptocurrency payments and the DeFi ecosystem, benefiting compliant projects in the long run.
Technically, BTC has broken below the moving average support on the daily chart, continuing the bearish trend, but there is strong support around the $103,000 level. The 4-hour chart shows weakening rebound momentum, and caution is needed for selling pressure in the $105,500-$106,500 range during the day. ETH is performing weaker, and if the $2,480 support is lost, it may accelerate the decline towards $2,280, with resistance to watch at $2,540-$2,570 above.
Regarding altcoins, despite a significant rebound the day before, risks from geopolitical conflicts and ETF delays still exist. Before liquidity improves, caution is advised against a “one-day” rally. It is recommended that investors focus on short-term operations within the BTC/ETH range while remaining cautious in the altcoin sector, waiting for clear signals from the Federal Reserve meeting and SEC policy before positioning.
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