On June 19th (Thursday) at midnight Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision from the June monetary policy meeting.

Although geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, the Federal Reserve is primarily focused on the domestic job market and inflation trends, and it is expected that the interest rates will likely remain unchanged at the June meeting. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have significantly pushed up crude oil prices but have recently receded, having a limited impact on the U.S. economy and inflation.

Since the May Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. employment and inflation data indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. On one hand, since the May meeting, U.S.-China tariff reductions have decreased concerns about a U.S. economic recession, and the job market has cooled in an orderly manner; the number of newly added non-farm jobs exceeded expectations in April and May, but the three-month moving average has overall declined; weekly initial and continued claims also show a slowdown in the job market, but there have been no large-scale layoffs. On the other hand, the CPI and PPI inflation in May were generally below expectations, and the boosting effect of tariffs on inflation is not yet obvious, but high-frequency data indicates that tariffs are still driving up commodity prices, and the Federal Reserve may still be concerned about inflationary pressures from tariffs.$BTC #美联储利率决议即将公布