Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting will be held. The real focus of the Federal Reserve this week will not be on announcing a rate cut, but rather on the dot plot.

If the prediction of two rate cuts this year is maintained, it would be positive; fewer than two cuts or no cuts at all would be a significant negative.

There is also a neutral outcome, where the dot plot predicts one rate cut this year, but later Powell's speech sends a dovish signal to the market.

Regarding Powell's speech, I estimate it will be similar to before, emphasizing the need to focus on inflation and unemployment rates, and being ready to act as needed. Whether he adopts a dovish or hawkish stance will be left for the market to interpret, with an ambiguous attitude.

Currently, the CME's interest rate bets are based on the expectation of two rate cuts within the year. If the expectation is for two cuts, then there is a brief momentum for long positions in U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.

Referring to the inflation, employment, and consumption data from April and May, especially the unemployment rate in May reaching 4.244%, which is not far from the red line of 4.3%,

therefore, my expectation for rate cuts is two times, in September and December, with the magnitude of cuts still aligned with my previous view of 75-100 basis points. However, if the economy weakens beyond expectations, there is a considerable probability that the rate cut could be moved up to October.