Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently at a critical moment, with its price once again testing the historical support area of $0.168—consistent with the market bottom in mid-April. This level is not only a focus of technical analysis but may also determine the future price movement of Dogecoin. Since reaching a local peak in mid-May, Dogecoin has fallen by about 30%, making $0.168 a potential turning point that the market is paying attention to.
According to renowned X analyst Ali Charts, $0.168 is not only a key support level but also coincides with the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. This pattern provides important clues for the movement of Dogecoin.
If the price falls below $0.168, it will enter the 'gap zone'—a price range with historically low trading activity and a lack of support, which could lead to uncontrollable selling pressure and a further drop in price to around $0.09, a level that was tested as major support in mid-2024.
Conversely, if the support level at $0.168 holds, Dogecoin may face a bullish opportunity. Technical analysis shows that the current price is in the lower support area of a broader four-year cup and handle pattern, with $0.168 intersecting the support line of the cup and handle pattern, forming a potential breakout point. If the breakout is confirmed, the technical target could point to $0.75, an increase of about 350% from the current level, consistent with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.
The momentum indicator is not optimistic.
However, the current market signals pose challenges to the bullish outlook.
The golden cross that appeared in May failed to persist, and in June the MACD line fell below the signal line, forming a death cross, with the gap continuing to widen, suggesting a dominant long-term downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows weakened buying pressure, dropping from the neutral line to the current level of 42, further diminishing the likelihood of a short-term rebound.
Market focus is also on the decision regarding the US spot Dogecoin ETF. If the ETF is approved, it could inject new capital inflows into Dogecoin, serving as an external catalyst to break the current stalemate and open the door to traditional investment markets. However, if the decision fails to pass, market sentiment may further deteriorate, exacerbating selling pressure.
For high-volatility meme coins like Dogecoin, timing is crucial. Investors who entered after the market bottomed in mid-April and failed to sell at the peak in mid-May may currently face unrealized losses. Investors need to closely monitor the weekly closing price at $0.168; a drop below it could trigger further declines, while holding could pave the way for a rebound.
