๐บ๐ธ FOMC Recap โ June 18, 2025
๐ Rates Held Steady Again
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%โ4.50%, marking its third consecutive pause. Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to slash rates, the Fed reaffirmed its independence ๐๏ธ and chose caution over politics.
๐ฃ๏ธ Trumpโs Warning
Trump hinted he might "force something" if inflation continues to drop and the Fed doesnโt act. Markets interpreted this as potential political intervention if monetary policy stays tight.
๐ Dot Plot Shift
The updated dot plot now shows just one rate cut in 2025, revised down from two earlier projections. This signals a more hawkish stance in light of mixed labor data and ongoing uncertainty.
๐ Key Risks Highlighted
The Fed cited growing concerns over trade tariffs, geopolitical instability, and inconsistent job numbers as reasons for the cautious tone.
๐ September in Focus
Markets are now eyeing September as the likely window for a potential rate cut, depending heavily on incoming inflation and employment data.
๐๏ธ Powellโs Message
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fedโs commitment to a data-driven path, staying focused on economic fundamentals and ignoring political noise ๐.