The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 17-18, 2025, concluded with the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely anticipated by economists and market analysts. The decision reflects the Fed’s cautious “wait-and-see” approach amid persistent inflation concerns and President Trump’s tariff policies, which could drive prices higher. The updated Summary of Economic Projections, or “dot plot,” released during the meeting, is expected to signal fewer rate cuts in 2025—possibly one or two, likely in September or December—down from earlier projections of two cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2 p.m. ET on June 18 is closely watched for hints on future policy, especially regarding inflation, which Goldman Sachs predicts may rise to 3.3% by December. Despite a stable labor market with 4.2% unemployment, the Fed remains wary of tariff-driven inflation and potential economic slowdown. Investors are also monitoring for any dissent among FOMC members and Powell’s stance on Trump’s pressure for earlier rate cuts. Markets expect rates to hold steady through the summer, with a 93% chance of cuts by year-end.
