#FOMCMeeting FOMCMeeting

🏦 Key Highlights

1. Interest rate decision

0-2Held steady at 4.25%–4.50%, as widely expected  .

2. **Updated “dot plot”**

Fewer rate cuts penciled in for 2025 compared to March.

381-2Market odds now suggest the first cut could be in September, though some foresee July  .

3. Economic overview

618-0Inflation has cooled but concerns remain over rising tariff-induced pressure and oil volatility  .

793-0Mixed data: a drop in retail sales and industrial output raises growth concerns  .

4. Fed’s communication tone

913-1Described as cautious and data-dependent; officials emphasized they want more clarity on how tariffs, labor indicators, and global risks will impact inflation  .

1160-0No decisiveness to cut rates immediately—political pressures, including from Trump, have not shifted their stance  .

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🔍 Market & Asset Class Impacts

1324-0Bond markets: Leaning toward 1 or 2 rate cuts by year‑end; front‐end yields benefitting  .

1493-0Equities: Slight pressure in short-term, with S&P 500 dipping on trade/inflation jitters  .

1608-0Crypto: Bitcoin newfound volatility tied to Fed cues; analysts watching for potential shifts  .

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🧭 What to Watch Next

Powell’s press conference: Investors will parse his remarks for any hint of timing on rate cuts and views on trade policy.

Upcoming economic data: Retail sales, inflation metrics, and labor reports will heavily influence future Fed moves.

Global/Risk factors: Escalating tariffs or oil market stress could sway the Fed’s path.

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