25% Bitcoin price rally set to follow today’s correction if history repeats
A Bitcoin price drop below $102,000 could be followed by a swift 25% rally to new ATH
Bitcoin price slipped to $103,300 after traders started cutting risk ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet and the following interest rate decision which will be made public on Wednesday. The correction follows a bearish weekly candle close, suggesting a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions — particularly the Israel-Iran conflict — add to the risk-off sentiment.
According to Bitcoin Vector, a Swissblock-backed market pulse aggregator, the decline is not just macro-driven. It aligns with seasonal weakness and falling onchain network growth, pointing to a cool down in spot demand. Over $434 million in BTC futures were liquidated in the past day, emphasizing that the current move is largely leverage-driven, with traders opting for caution rather than fresh exposure.
Despite this, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index — a metric comparing BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance, has remained positive for most of June, signaling steady spot demand from US investors. However, this demand has had a limited impact on price due to broader market caution.
Further pressure came from profit-taking activity among “mid-cycle holders” (six–12 months), who realized $904 million in profits on Monday, according to Glassnode. This cohort accounted for 83% of the total realized gains, a notable shift from the longer-term or more than 12-month holders, who had previously led profit realization. The shift suggests a rotation in market dynamics, with more reactive participants securing gains during recent highs.
A healthy MVRV Z-score indicating BTC remains fundamentally undervalued and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum hints at selective profit-taking rather than panic. Similar setups in past cycles have preceded 18–25% rallies within six–eight weeks, which implies a potential $130,000 price target by the end of Q2
