The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently holding its two-day monetary policy meeting on June 17–18, 2025. The meeting is expected to conclude today, June 18, with a policy decision and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (11:30 p.m. IST) .
Current Market Expectations
The FOMC is anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, continuing its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Despite recent inflation data showing signs of moderation, the Fed remains vigilant due to potential inflationary pressures from proposed tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East .
Economic Indicators Under Review
Key economic indicators influencing the Fed's decision include:
Inflation: Recent data indicates a slight cooling in inflation, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) rising less than expected in May .
Labor Market: The job market remains stable, though jobless claims suggest potential softening. Retail sales declined by 0.9% in May, reflecting cautious consumer behavior .
Geopolitical Factors: Recent surges in oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East have added to inflation concerns, influencing the Fed's cautious stance .
Outlook for Future Rate Cuts
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in June, market participants anticipate potential rate cuts later in the year. Projections suggest that the first rate cut could occur as early as October, with additional cuts possible in subsequent meetings, depending on economic developments .