#FOMCMeeting What happened & what to expect

• Rate decision

The Fed held its benchmark federal funds rate steady in the 4.25 %–4.50 % range for the fourth consecutive meeting .

• Economic and inflation outlook

Policymakers emphasized a cautious “wait‑and‑see” approach due to rising geopolitical risks (notably Israel–Iran tensions), recent tariffs, and mixed domestic data—such as weak retail sales—keeping them on guard for inflationary surprises  .

• Dot‑plot and rate cut timing

A slight revision toward a more hawkish tone emerged. Most committee members are now projecting just one rate cut this year, later than previously expected (now tipped for September rather than July)  .

• Balance sheet & QT

The Fed suggested it may slow or pause its quantitative tightening soon to support liquidity through the summer months .

• Powell press conference

Chair Powell reinforced the Fed’s independence, stating they won’t yield to political pressure (e.g., from Trump), and will base future moves on incoming data  .