Today, I am publicly sharing the core framework of this rolling position method, but only those who have followed me in practice know the real details.
Step 1: Choose a coin - only trade coins that are 'definitely going to pump'.
90% of people lose money because they are heavily invested in the wrong coins. My rule is simple:
1. Market cap of 100 million to 1 billion USD (too small is easily manipulated, too large cannot be moved).
2. Weekly consolidation for more than 3 months, suddenly breaking out (indicating that the market maker's accumulation has ended).
3. Sector heat is rising (e.g., AI, MEME, RWA, must have a strong narrative support).
Step 2: Position management - 3-layer pyramid scaling method +
With a capital of 100,000, divided into 3 parts: 40,000 + 30,000 + 30,000 (the ratio can be slightly adjusted based on market conditions).
1. First position 40,000 (testing position).
Stop loss: -15% (cut losses if down 6,000).
Goal: After +30%~50% floating profit, prepare to add a second position.
2. Second position 30,000 (confirm the trend).
Only increase positions when the first position is more than 30% profitable.
Move the stop loss to the breakeven price (at this point, the overall position is at zero risk).
3. Third position 30,000 (violent sprint).
When the total profit from the first two positions exceeds 50%, fully invest in the last trade.
No stop loss, only waiting for a double or a total loss.
Leading fans to trade $ONDO (the RWA leader), the first position of 40,000 is entered at 0.25, adding the second position at 0.35, fully investing at 0.5, and finally clearing at 0.8, turning 100,000 into 280,000 in just 3 weeks.
Step 3: Escape the peak - 3 signals before the market maker offloads.
The biggest fear in rolling positions is greed; 90% of profit retracement is due to not taking the right moment. My exit rule:
1. A daily chart shows a 'long upper shadow' + a sharp drop in volume (indicating the market maker is offloading).
2. Community enthusiasm suddenly cools down (reduced discussions on Twitter, Discord).
3. The sudden listing of contract exchanges (usually means the main force is about to dump).
For example, when SPEOPLE was at 0.1, I advised all fans to take profit, and it subsequently plummeted by 60%.
The key to accurately escaping a peak lies in monitoring market data.
Why can't most people do it?
1. Not daring to test the waters with the first position (always wanting to wait for the absolute low point, resulting in missing the main upward wave).
2. Not daring to increase positions after making a profit (running after a small gain and missing a tenfold opportunity).
3. Holding on stubbornly after a loss (clearly should cut losses, but fantasizing of breaking even).
If you really want to turn 100,000 into 1,000,000, it's not about luck, but about a trading system and rules. Read the following content carefully.
Emphasizing the importance of a trading system in two key points.
To survive in the brutal market of trading, one must focus on solving two problems as follows:
1. How to find the non-random parts in highly random market price fluctuations.
2. How to effectively control your psychological weaknesses to ensure rational decision-making?
The significance of establishing a trading system lies in defining our trading behavior; do not trade based on emotions, but rather engage in high-probability activities.
The trading system should include several parts:
1. Underlying asset
2. Position.
3. Direction
4. Entry point.
5. Stop loss.
6. Take profit
Before any trade, these several questions need to be considered clearly. Each of these six points is very important, especially 4/5/6, which experienced traders know are quite complex.
Mastery requires a long time of trading summary; tutorials often present very standard and beautiful signals. However, in actual trading, there will be many variations and noise, leading to non-standard signals. At this time, should one enter or not?
Needs personal summarization.
Many trading courses on the market can be evaluated using the above points; the strengths and weaknesses are clear at a glance.
The above is a general outline; when actually establishing a trading system, the following points also need to be considered:
1. What is your initial capital?
2. Will this capital be used in the short term?
3. How much capital loss can you tolerate?
4. What are your expectations for future returns?
Based on the above points, consider issues related to capital management, whether to invest for short, medium, or long term, and what level of risk you can bear - small, large, risk-averse, or risk-seeking.
Looking at the K-line chart, there are simply two states to distinguish.
One is a trend state, which appears as a diagonal line on the K-line, regardless of whether it is an upward or downward trend.
One is a consolidation state, which appears as almost a horizontal state on the K-line.
Regarding the consolidation state, one can also determine whether it is a consolidation within an upward trend or a downward trend.
In trading, the most important thing is to choose trend trading ★ to undertake. In the literature on technical analysis, there is a survey conclusion.
Out of 10 traders, two stable profit-makers are trend traders.
Therefore, do things with a high probability; in trading, it is essential to choose trend trading, which, combined with the previously discussed trading system, can absolutely achieve stable profits.
This has been explained very clearly; it visually sets trading norms for novices. Even if you are a novice following this set of rules, if you still cannot make a profit, then it is best not to trade.
Next, I will outline the core strategy of trend trading; this is the essence part, and I can't go into too much detail, so I'll leave some valuable information for you.
The framework for trend trading is as follows:
1. What is a trend, and how to determine a trend?
Everyone has different criteria for judging a trend.
Here, I will briefly mention mine.
For example, a breakthrough with the M60 moving average is considered the start of a trend.
For example, based on trend standards, a high point exceeds a previous high while a low point also exceeds the last low.
2. Methods for entering trend trading.
There are two common methods for entering trend trading:
The first is the support level entry, which is entering at the retracement position. The key question is how to determine whether this position is a reversal point; commonly used are trend line support levels and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Secondly, entering on a breakout is most commonly done by breaking the previous high; another higher probability is a breakout after a long period of consolidation.
Advanced point: ponder over high-probability support and breakout points.
In two years, I turned 3,000 into over 10 million through this (MACD strategy) +
If you read this article carefully, you will benefit for a lifetime!
Definition of MACD concept
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) describes the relationship between two moving averages: a fast line and a slow line. Essentially, the MACD indicator's function is to judge and predict the change or continuation of price trends.
2. How to enable the MACD indicator?
Open the indicator library, search for the MACD indicator, and check it. The MACD indicator will appear below.
BTC/USDT Binance #66997.99, switch to BTC 1 hour. Set up MACD's call 1, in the spot market. We can use this original setup without making too many changes; the original parameters are short cycle (N1) 12, long cycle (N2) 26, and DEA cycle (M) 9.
3. The green line and the orange line.
The green line (DIF, fast line) is the difference between the short cycle (12 periods) EMA and the long cycle (26 periods) EMA, also known as the 'fast line'. It reflects market changes over a shorter time span, making it more sensitive than the slow line.
The orange line (DEA, slow line) is the 9-cycle EMA of DIF, also known as the 'slow line'. It is a smoothed line calculated from DIF, reflecting market changes over a longer time span, and thus is smoother and lags behind the fast line.
MACD can display the difference between DIF and DEA. Based on these three elements, we can judge the market's trend and its changes.
2. MACD golden cross and death cross trading strategy.
When the price is in a downtrend, if the fast line crosses above the slow line, this is known as a golden cross. This indicates that the trend is about to shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, which presents a trading opportunity to go long.
Next, when the price is in an upward trend, and the fast line crosses below the slow line, also known as a death cross, it means the trend will shift from upward to downward, making this a reasonable short entry point.
This is the traditional use of MACD.
3. MACD divergence trading strategy.
1. MACD top divergence.
When the price's high is higher than the previous high, this is a higher high.
Logically, the MACD should also form higher highs to correspond with the price's trend momentum. However, at this time, the MACD forms lower highs, indicating that the price's trend momentum shows signs of weakening. The second high point in the chart is higher than the first, which constitutes a higher high.
When the price forms higher highs, but the MACD forms lower highs, this is a top divergence. When you see the price forming higher highs, but the MACD forms lower highs, this is a top divergence. The price trend is likely to turn downward.
We need to find key price levels + MACD trend reversal divergence to confirm the trend.
2. MACD bottom divergence.
When the price's low is lower than the previous low, this is a lower low.
However, if the MACD forms higher lows, it means buying momentum has begun to intervene, and the price drop momentum is gradually weakening.
There is a high probability that a downward trend will turn into an upward trend. When the price forms lower lows, but the MACD forms higher lows, this is a bottom divergence. When a bottom divergence forms, it indicates that the trend will likely turn into an upward trend, which is a reasonable buying opportunity.
3. MACD trend reversal trading strategy.
Finding key price levels + MACD trend reversal divergence; as long as two peaks are connected, the bottom MACD should also find the corresponding two peaks.
The first step is to determine the key support level. We can see that the price has tested this support level multiple times and then made a significant upward move; therefore, this is the key support level. When the price returns to this key support level again, we can look for long trade signals.
For example, we find a peak that has already gone through a round of fluctuations and has returned to the support level.
However, please note that you cannot go long yet. We need an additional signal to confirm that this bottom divergence is valid; we will draw a downward trend line here.
You can see that this is a descending wedge triangle, which is a bullish chart pattern. When the price breaks through this descending wedge triangle, we can enter a long position.
Meeting these two points and breaking through the descending trend line, one can consider going long. Or we can draw a line at the previous high before a downtrend; when the price breaks above the previous high, it indicates a trend break. The price is likely to shift from a downtrend to an uptrend; we can enter long positions after the price breaks above the previous high. In summary: key price levels + MACD trend reversal divergence.
4. How to find support levels?
Support levels can be understood as multiple retracement points forming valleys or peaks, where multiple retests occur at the foothill. It can be a small price range or a specific point. We just discussed MACD divergence + key price levels. The key price level is whether the support level has been broken.
The only enemy on the road of trading is oneself.
Investing is actually a high-threshold industry, but you only need a phone/computer, a phone number, and an ID card to enter the CEX cryptocurrency trading market. However, this does not mean you will make money. The cryptocurrency market is ultimately composed of people, and human greed, anger, ignorance, sloth, and doubt are all fully expressed here.
01 Regarding gambling, playing altcoins is gambling; holding Bitcoin is the right path. This is a peculiar statement in the current market; dollar-cost averaging in Bitcoin is also strongly recommended by many experts, but which of these experts' early success stories did not involve altcoins, or even CX coins?
Listening to experts hype up dollar-cost averaging in Bitcoin and then blindly following that path - isn't that gambling?
Whether it's gambling or not is unrelated to the coin; the essence of a gambler's mentality is: ignoring current trends and acting based on greed, fear, or hope. For many, the cryptocurrency circle is purely a large casino. In A-shares, many people also believe that A-shares are a casino.
Viewing the market and the cryptocurrency space with this mindset means that such people do not need to stay here; wouldn't it be better to play in Macau? Viewing the market with a gambling mindset will inevitably lead to tragic results; entering the market with the mentality of a gambler means being ensnared by karma, and the tragic outcome is already predetermined; no matter how one struggles, it is a gamble for one's life.
Returning to Bitcoin and altcoins, some always belittle the altcoin community as worthless. Without the early altcoin Ethereum, could Bitcoin have achieved today's success? Bitcoin, as a pioneer, and the later altcoins are in a symbiotic and complementary relationship, not a competitive one. Bitcoin itself cannot fully unleash the potential of blockchain; it needs altcoins to extend and expand. Comparatively, for ordinary investors, quality altcoins are actually a better choice because the odds are relatively higher.
But there is a basic fact: over the long term, few altcoins can outperform Bitcoin. Of course, in any market or era, those who become legends are always a small number.
02 Regarding contracts and technical analysis, like altcoins, contracts are also a double-edged sword; futures contracts in the crypto circle are basically equivalent to a casino.
I had not previously engaged with contracts; external voices say playing contracts equates to giving away money, and various cases of total loss have been reported, leading to a huge misunderstanding of contracts. It wasn't until I started engaging with contracts at the beginning of this year that I realized contracts are a very good tool.
The main reason contracts are criticized is due to liquidation, which solely depends on the individual. I only invest a small portion of my total capital in contracts, dividing the contract capital into 10 parts for operation, and setting a stop loss for each trade. Although I haven't made money, after playing hundreds of rounds, I haven't faced liquidation. Most people engage in trading without a complete trading system; for instance, when a counter trend occurs, there is no stop loss mechanism, and instead, they fantasize about an immediate reversal. If not you, then who will face liquidation?
As a tool, contracts themselves are not inherently good or bad; it depends on the user.
Because I got involved with contracts, I had to engage with technical analysis. Like everyone else, I used to think that technical analysis was nonsense and just a post-factum explanation. It was only after I got involved that I realized it wasn't like that. Technical analysis is not about making predictions; that's charlatanism.
The essence of technical analysis: Technical analysis is essentially a translator. There are too many factors influencing coin prices in the market, and you do not know which factors carry the most weight, but all factors will lead to a determined result: the price. Technical analysis describes what is happening in the market through price; this is the value of technical analysis, a language that humans can understand.
The biggest change that technical analysis brought me is knowing how to avoid risks. For example, I recently bought an IEO coin, which surged nearly 8 times. In the past, I would either sell out of fear after a small gain, missing out on later big profits, or hold on until the highest point, only to be stuck; this coin has now dropped by half. This time, I used a simple long-short moving average system to discover that this coin had already shifted from a bullish to a bearish market in the larger time frame, indicating a high risk of decline, allowing me to exit in time and preserve most of the profit.
People are easily influenced by external voices, leading them to reject or favor something they have never understood; this is a problem that must be changed.
03 About greed and fear: joy from material gain, sorrow from personal loss. When the price rises, it's a revolution; when it falls, it's a scam. Emotions are always the biggest obstacle on your investment path because they disrupt all your plans. In fact, many people have trading plans; they sell promptly when their planned selling point appears and buy when their buying point appears. However, with the addition of emotions, the results often go against their original intentions.
For instance, before the crash on March 12, many said that their trading system had already indicated a sell signal, but due to the market's enthusiasm and endless expectations for Bitcoin's halving, they did not want to miss the major halving trend. Greed took over entirely, and March 12 was the biggest retribution; infinite joy and expectations turned into infinite sorrow.
No trend is worthy of fear or joy. If you still feel fear or joy about any trend, it indicates that you are still controlled by emotions; you should continue to hone your skills in the current trend until all fear and joy turn to dust.
How to eliminate greed and fear? One of the most common methods is to endure the market's constant washout; I have a better method - the Zen contemplation.
I consider myself a half-hearted Zen enthusiast, meditating daily while contemplating the question, 'Who is chanting?' However, I am filled with doubt and wonder who is actually chanting. This is what we call contemplating the question; this method can also be applied to various thoughts such as 'Who is initiating greed?' and then pursue it. You will quickly have a question: where did this thought originate? In fact, by the time you reach this point, this greed has already dissipated.
The same reasoning applies: 'Who is in fear?', 'Who is happy?', etc.
04 Summary: People are easily disturbed by external influences, leading to inexplicable rejection or favoring of something they have never understood. Emotionally, they are prone to developing biases against K-line fluctuations, while the true voice of the market is always in the present.
Investing is very similar to spiritual practice; each person polishes their character through their own methods, clearing layers of fog to comprehend the truth. Investing is a form of practice, and on this path, your only enemy is yourself.$RESOLV $HOOK #Solana现货ETF竞赛 #币安HODLer空投SPK
(If you are still underwater, unable to see the overall market trend, and if bullish leads to drops and bearish leads to rises, follow my homepage for daily free profit tips.)
