Dogecoin (DOGE) is once again testing a significant historical support zone—the same level that marked the market bottom in mid-April—setting the stage for a crucial moment that could either reinforce or break the current Dogecoin price forecast.
Since the meme coin peaked locally in mid-May, a 30% drop has put this critical level back in question, with $0.168 seen as a potential pivotal point.
According to renowned analyst Ali Charts of X, this level aligns with the lower boundary of an important symmetrical triangle - a breakout from which could trigger a 30% retracement.
Below $0.168 is a dangerous 'gap area'—a price range with sparse previous buying activity, creating little historical support to limit the downtrend.
Dogecoin Price Analysis: A crash here could get worse.
Looking further, the symmetrical triangle that Martinez notes contributes to a broader cup and handle pattern over 4 years, with lower support crossing the handle.
This creates a potential confluence zone between the key support threshold and the upper resistance threshold of the descending channel forming the handle—a potential breakout setup.
A confirmed breakout would target a technical level of around $0.75 - an astonishing increase of 350% from the current level according to the Fibonacci extension of 1.618.
However, this bullish trend is only valid if the support level of $0.168 is maintained and momentum indicators fail to build confidence.
The golden cross from May has proven to be short-lived as the MACD widens the gap below the signal line after the death cross in early June—a sign of a long-term downtrend prevailing.
The RSI index also shows that buying pressure is weakening, continuing to drop below the neutral line and reaching the current position of 42.
If DOGE closes below $0.168 on a weekly basis, the next major Dogecoin price support area will be around $0.90, with the nearest testing expected in mid-2024.
From there, all attention is focused on the decision regarding the U.S. spot Dogecoin ETF on June 15, which could provide the external catalyst that DOGE needs, opening the door for capital inflow from traditional investment markets if approved.