On June 18, Bitcoin (BTC) unexpectedly slid below the $105,000 mark, amid warnings from analysts that the market may be silently preparing for a major volatility.
BTC prices are "accumulating before a big wave" — Analyst warns.
According to data from TradingView, the BTC/USD pair plunged to a daily low of $103,401 right after the Wall Street market opened last night.
Notably, the series of 11 consecutive red candles on the hourly chart — a rare phenomenon — completely stifled the efforts of the bulls, amid order book analysis indicating that selling pressure could potentially spread strongly.
"This situation is a clear testament to the manipulation of the order book for BTC," the analysis platform Material Indicators commented on platform X, emphasizing the phenomenon of continuously changing buy-side liquidity as prices fall.
"If the price breaks below $105,000, prepare for a 'rug pull' at the $103,000 zone."
The phenomenon of "liquidity spoofing" — a common trick in the crypto market — is often used by big players to manipulate prices by placing and then canceling large orders to deceive the market.
However, there is still hope for the bulls. "If BTC can surpass the $108,000 threshold, the door to the $110,000 zone will open wide," Material Indicators commented in a previous analysis.
The market remains stable, but volatility is approaching.
The renowned analyst Skew appears quite optimistic when evaluating the overall strength of the market. According to him, Bitcoin investors are currently maintaining a much calmer mindset compared to previous corrections, despite rising pressure from the global geopolitical situation.
However, Skew also issued a cautious warning: a major volatility may be silently forming.
"With the current correction at only about 3%, the market is still maintaining relative stability, with no clear signs of panic. However, on shorter time frames, defensive signs have begun to appear," he shared on platform X.
Skew emphasizes that sharp declines in the past typically have a volatility range of about 5%, accompanied by panic selling, heavy short orders, and a surge in volatility, trading volume, and selling pressure. "This indicates that a 'big move' is still being plotted and has yet to truly emerge," he concluded.
The USD index "deeply oversold" suggests a potential recovery.
As gold prices decline and the USD begins to show signs of recovery in a bullish divergence, concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are gradually easing.
In an analysis posted on platform X, The Kobeissi Letter — a well-known financial source in the investment community — dismissed the possibility of conflict between Israel and Iran escalating into a global war.
"Although gold is holding its strength, the market is still telling a familiar story: We are not on the brink of World War III," the article affirmed.
"At the same time, oil prices rose about 2% despite the unresolved tension between Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond approached the 4.50% mark, indicating that the market is signaling that the current risks are likely only short-term, rather than a long-term impediment to the global economy."
The US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) — which usually has an inverse relationship with Bitcoin — is showing clear signs of recovery after hitting a multi-year low.
"Asset managers are currently heavily betting on the bearish trend of the USD. The last time such a large short position appeared, the DXY surged sharply," according to strategist Guilherme Tavares.
He added: "Currently, this index is fluctuating near a key support zone, while the RSI (14) has fallen into a deep oversold area, and a very clear bullish divergence signal has appeared."
