#FOMCMeeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets **June 17–18, 2025**, with the interest rate decision announced at **2 p.m. ET on June 18**, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET .

**Key expectations**:

1. **Rate Hold**: A 99.9% probability the Fed will maintain the benchmark rate at **4.25%–4.50%**, unchanged since December 2024 .

2. **Economic Uncertainty**: Persistent inflation (May CPI: 2.4%) and concerns over Trump-era tariffs drive the Fed’s "wait-and-see" stance .

3. **Market Impact**: Bitcoin traders eye a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, while bond markets price in ~60% odds of a September rate cut .

The meeting includes updated **economic projections** ("dot plot"), which may signal fewer 2025 rate cuts than previously forecast .