#FOMCMeeting

📅 Meeting Overview

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened June 17–18 in Washington, D.C. .

The widely expected outcome: no change to the federal funds rate, which remains at **4.25%–4.50%** .

As per CME Group's FedWatch, odds of keeping rates unchanged were ~99.9% .

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🧭 Key Drivers & Themes

Ongoing caution: Fed officials emphasize staying data-dependent, wary of inflation due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions .

Labor market remains steady, though some signs of softening (e.g., jobless claims, payroll growth moderating) .

Geopolitical shocks—like Israel‑Iran tensions driving up oil prices—add inflationary pressure, deterring any immediate rate cuts .

Treasury market and bond futures see ~60% chance of a rate cut by September, though some predict cuts in late Q4 or even later .

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📝 Dot Plot & Forward Guidance

The FOMC’s updated dot plot will provide insights into 2025‑26 rate expectations—likely indicating just one cut this year (down from earlier projections of more) .

Watch for Powell’s press conference post-decision (2:30 pm EST, June 18), where he’ll clarify the Fed’s stance on inflation, labor, and timing of future cuts .

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📅 Timeline of Events

Event Time

Rate decision released 2:00 pm EST, June 18

Powell’s press conference 2:30 pm EST, June 18

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🔍 Market & Investment Implications

Equities: May rise on relief, but any hawkish tone may restrain gains .

Bonds & yields: Sensitive to new inflation or rate-path signals; volatility will spike if dot plot diverges from market expectations.

Crypto: Bitcoin trends could respond—if the Fed leans dovish, it might support risk assets; a hawkish stance could pressure it .

Global impact: Traders watch whether the Fed signals global economic resilience or growing uncertainty amid geopolitical events.

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✅ Bottom Line

June meeting: Expect no rate movement, cautious rhetoric, and signals of limited cuts ahead.

Market focus: Dot plot shifts, Powell’s tone, inflation vs. growth data.