My people! Attention to this thing that has us all on edge! 😬 Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve of the United States (the FED, for friends) will release its verdict on interest rates, and the pressure is coming from all sides: from the White House with Donald Trump shouting for rate cuts, to the Middle East with the war between Iran and Israel that has oil prices going crazy. A serious matter! 🌍🛢️
Although the ball is hot, no one expects the FED to move rates this time. Not a chance! The real gossip is in what Jerome Powell, the head of the FED, will say about what’s coming for the rest of 2025. Investors are all ears, wanting to know if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will continue betting on two rate cuts this year or if they will surprise us with just one slash. Imagine the tension!
The key point will be the famous "dot plot," which is like the FED's betting pool where each member releases their forecast for rates. In March, the majority said two cuts, but by a hair! With just two votes changing, we could go to just one cut, and that, oh boy!, could stir things up in the markets. 📊📉
And to spice things up, there are Trump's threats with the tariffs and the war in the Middle East. Although the tariffs haven't hit hard yet, the war does have everyone worried about oil and, consequently, about inflation. It's an economic puzzle with pieces all over the place! 🤔
It is expected that Powell will maintain his "no hurry" stance, the same one he expressed in May. But, like everything in this life, if the numbers change, things could flip quickly! Inflation remains the bogeyman, and although unemployment is low (4.2%), hiring has slowed down. So, even if they don’t act now, the FED has its eye on the ball! 🧐
Some experts, like Robert Kaplan, former president of the Dallas FED, say that if it weren't for the tariffs, the FED would already be thinking about lowering rates. That's how serious the matter is! And Goldman Sachs also expects only one cut this year, perhaps in December, when the full impact of the tariffs on inflation is felt.
Moreover, Powell's time at the helm of the FED is running out (he leaves in May 2026), and history tells us that FED presidents usually end their terms with a more conservative stance, focused on leaving a legacy of credibility! So, even though Trump puts pressure, the FED wants to show that it is independent. 🏛️
In summary, the markets are betting on two cuts, but the balance is leaning more towards just one. Everything will depend on what Powell says tomorrow and how the numbers move! Stay connected, because this is getting good! 🚀$BTC $ETH $BNB
