The market awaits the Fed's word tomorrow, what are your expectations?

For me, I emphasize market expectations: keeping interest rates steady is the inevitable outcome tomorrow (❤️).

The statement and the dot plot, along with Powell's conference, are the real event.

If the dots show that the majority of officials expect only one rate cut (or even none!) in 2024, or if Powell's tone is hawkish (emphasizing prolonged high rates, questioning the drop in inflation) → 📉 A drop in the markets (especially stocks and cryptocurrencies), rise of the dollar and yields.

If the dots show that the majority of officials still expect two rate cuts in 2024, or if Powell's tone is balanced/reassuring (indicating progress in inflation, leaving the door open for a later cut) → 📈 **A relief rally in risk markets, drop of the dollar.