Here’s what you need to know
Polymarket's platform reveals user predictions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tomorrow. The platform's data shows that the vast majority of the market believes the Federal Reserve will not change the interest rate.
The prediction market for interest rate decisions on Polymarket, which opened for interest rate trades, has seen a total trading volume exceeding $66 million. 98% of users believe the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rate unchanged. Over $22.2 million has been invested in this option.
Considering other scenarios:
The average expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut is 2%, with a trading volume of $18 million.
The trading volume is likely to be 50 basis points, and less than 1%.
The trading volume is likely to be 25 basis points, and less than 1%. Users of Polymarket do not just predict interest rate decisions; they also anticipate the future price of Bitcoin. Over $8 million has been traded in the market under the title 'What will be the price of Bitcoin in June?'
The most supported level is $100,000, where 56% of users expect it to reach this price.
Followed by $95,000 at 25%, and $115,000 at 17%, and $90,000 at 12%.
Price predictions do not exceed 8% for levels above $120,000 in total.
Users are also sharing their predictions about the price of Bitcoin in 2025. Here, the highest probability stands at $120,000 at 71%.
Estimate of $130,000 at 54%
33% support the $150,000 level.
Other notable levels include $70,000 (28%), $200,000 (14%), and $50,000 (12%).
*This is not investment advice.
