Suyay
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Today FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting
Today marks the beginning of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, which extends from June 17 to 18, 2025, and it is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, a figure that has been in effect since last December.
🔍 Economic context:
Geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, have impacted oil prices, which in turn fuels inflationary pressures.
Recent data shows a slowdown in retail sales and a barely recovering industrial production in May, indicating signs of deceleration.
Still, the labor market remains strong, and inflation is close to the target, although some analysts warn of future risks due to tariffs.
🎯 Market expectations:
Nearly 99.9% probability that the rate will remain unchanged this week.
Investors and analysts are looking forward to the dispersion of the famous “dot-plot” and the new economic projections (SEP), as they could reflect moderate cuts in the coming quarters, depending on how inflation and growth evolve.
Most expect that rate cuts will not come before September 2025, although a smaller group is more cautious, estimating them for later.
🗣️ Key statements and next action:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the release of the statement on June 18 at 2:30 PM ET (in the U.S.).
Former vice-chair Richard Clarida (Pimco) insists that tariffs could push inflation towards the 3% range, despite the current moderation (PCE ~2.1% in April).
Previously, the FOMC has reinforced its message of “wait and see,” remaining alert to risks stemming from trade policy, the labor market, and inflation.
#FOMCMeeting
Today marks the beginning of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, which extends from June 17 to 18, 2025, and it is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, a figure that has been in effect since last December.
🔍 Economic context:
Geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, have impacted oil prices, which in turn fuels inflationary pressures.
Recent data shows a slowdown in retail sales and a barely recovering industrial production in May, indicating signs of deceleration.
Still, the labor market remains strong, and inflation is close to the target, although some analysts warn of future risks due to tariffs.
🎯 Market expectations:
Nearly 99.9% probability that the rate will remain unchanged this week.
Investors and analysts are looking forward to the dispersion of the famous “dot-plot” and the new economic projections (SEP), as they could reflect moderate cuts in the coming quarters, depending on how inflation and growth evolve.
Most expect that rate cuts will not come before September 2025, although a smaller group is more cautious, estimating them for later.
🗣️ Key statements and next action:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the release of the statement on June 18 at 2:30 PM ET (in the U.S.).
Former vice-chair Richard Clarida (Pimco) insists that tariffs could push inflation towards the 3% range, despite the current moderation (PCE ~2.1% in April).
Previously, the FOMC has reinforced its message of “wait and see,” remaining alert to risks stemming from trade policy, the labor market, and inflation.
#FOMCMeeting
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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