#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:

🏦 FOMC Outcome & Key Takeaways

No rate change: As widely expected, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, continuing its cautious approach amid inflation uncertainty and trade tensions (reuters.com).

Hawkish tone: Policymakers shifted toward a more cautious outlook, delaying any rate cuts. The updated dot plot signals just one rate cut in 2025, down from two projected in March (investors.com).

Press Conference Watch: Chair Powell emphasized that future moves depend on evolving data—especially inflation, labor market trends, and trade dynamics .

Inflation & geopolitics: Ongoing Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, along with tariff uncertainties, remain key factors shaping the Fed's caution (investors.com).

Labor market signs: While job growth slowed and claims modestly increased, the labor market stays strong—giving the Fed room to hold steady .

⏭ What’s Next?

Next anticipated rate cut: Market pricing suggests a 62–65% chance of a cut by September and minimal odds for July .

Upcoming events:

June 27 – release of the annual stress test results

Forthcoming minutes and economic projections (SEP) likely showing the updated one-cut consensus

Policy risks: Watch how trade policy evolves—especially new tariffs or fiscal stimulus—which could reignite inflation and shift the Fed’s stance.

📌 Bottom Line

The Fed took a "wait-and-see" approach, holding rates steady while signaling reduced expectations for rate cuts this year. The tone is more cautious, with inflation risks—fueled by tariffs and oil volatility—front and center. Markets have pushed back expectations, betting on a September cut rather than July.

If you'd like a deeper dive into the dot plot, Powell’s press conference highlights, or implications for stocks and bonds, just say the word.