#FOMCMeeting #FOMCMeeting

Here’s a concise summary of the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:

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Key Policy Decision

Interest rates held steady at 4.25 %–4.50 %, marking a pause amidst heightened uncertainty. Markets had priced in a ~99.9% probability of a hold .

The dot plot (Summary of Economic Projections) indicated only one rate cut projected for 2025 .

Economic Outlook & Risks

Inflation: May CPI and PPI readings came in below expectations, though core inflation remained elevated (above ~2.8%) .

Labor Market: Still resilient, with low unemployment (≈4.2%) , although some analysts highlight signs of softening that could argue for earlier cuts .

Consumer Activity: Retail sales dropped ≈0.9% in May, flagging a deceleration in consumer demand .

Global & Political Factors

Geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) have driven energy prices higher, posing upside risks to inflation .

Tariffs and trade policy decisions are clouding clarity on inflation dynamics, increasing caution .

Political pressure: President Trump’s vocal calls for a rate cut add complexity, but the Fed maintains independence, with Powell likely to resist undue influence .

Forward Guidance

The Fed emphasized a "wait‑and‑see" approach, linking future policy action to incoming data on inflation, employment, and global developments .

The Fed will continue balance sheet runoff and reiterated its commitment to the 2% inflation target alongside full employment .

Chair Powell’s press conference, scheduled for June 18, is expected to shed light on nuances such as timing for potential cuts and assessment of economic risks .

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🔍 Bottom Line

The Fed remains cautious, holding rates to ensure inflation settles near target while navigating a mix of strong job growth, cooling consumer spending, global volatility, and trade uncertainty. Markets will be watching Powell’s June 18 press conference for clues on the timing of the next move—likely one rate cut later this year, unless data shifts significantly.