#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:

• Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%. Markets (CME FedWatch) show nearly a 99.9% probability of keeping rates unchanged .

• Main Considerations:

• Geopolitical & Tariff Pressures: The Fed is closely monitoring rising Middle East tensions (with oil price volatility) and new U.S. tariffs, both of which could stoke inflation .

• Economic Data: May data reveal cooling inflation (near Fed’s 2% goal), a solid labor market (unemployment ~4.2%), but weakening retail sales and industrial production .

• Political Pressure: President Trump has urged the Fed for rate cuts, but the Fed—led by Chair Powell—is maintaining its independent stance .

• Dot Plot & Future Guidance: The Fed will release its updated “dot plot” of member projections. Markets expect now only one rate cut in 2025—a downgrade from the previous two . Existing analysis suggests cuts could come no earlier than September, with Wednesday’s meeting likely holding steady .

• Press Conference: Chair Powell will detail the decision and outlook in a Wed afternoon press conference, where attention will focus on how the Fed balances inflation, growth, and geopolitical risk .