#FOMCMeeting

📌 Key Takeaways

Rates held steady – The Fed left its benchmark federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, unchanged since December 2024. Policy remains “modestly restrictive” as inflation concerns persist .

Dot plot signals fewer cuts – FOMC projections indicate only one 25 bp rate cut expected this year, down from two earlier seen in March. This reflects elevated uncertainty from tariffs, geopolitical risks, and sticky inflation .

Persistent risks – Officials flagged rising uncertainties driven by U.S. trade policy and Middle East tensions impacting oil prices. They emphasized that both inflation and unemployment risks have increased, and the Fed will stay data-dependent .

---

Chair Powell’s Post-Meeting Press Conference (approx. 2:30 p.m. EDT)

Reiterated the Fed’s “wait‑and‑see” stance, underlining that policy will “carefully assess incoming data, evolving outlook, and risks” .

Refused to bow to political pressure, stressing the Fed’s data-based, independent approach amid calls for easier policy .

---

What It Means Moving Forward

No rate cut in June, and markets see the next potential move in September, with odds of a Q3 cut now around **55–60%** .

The Fed remains vigilant toward inflationary shocks from tariffs and global risks, while also mindful of slowing growth.

Any future rate cuts will depend heavily on upcoming labor, inflation, retail sales, and industrial data.

---

🔎 Bottom Line

The Fed held rates steady while signaling a shift toward fewer cuts this year, reflecting growing caution. It emphasized that policy decisions remain data-driven and not‑pre‑emptive. The focus now turns to upcoming economic releases and evolving geopolitical and trade developments