#FOMCMeeting

Here’s a summary of the key outcomes and expectations from the **June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting** based on the latest available information:

### **1. Interest Rate Decision**

- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to **keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%**, maintaining a cautious stance amid economic uncertainty .

- Markets had priced in a near-100% probability of no rate change, with the Fed emphasizing a data-dependent approach .

### **2. Policy Statement & Economic Projections**

- The **Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)** will likely show:

- **Lower GDP growth forecasts** (~1.2% y/y for Q4 2025 vs. 1.7% in March) and **higher inflation projections** (core PCE inflation revised to 3.0% y/y for 2025) .

- The median **dot plot** is expected to retain two 25bps rate cuts in 2025, with further easing in 2026–2027 .

- Unemployment rate projections may rise slightly to 4.5% by end-2025 .

### **3. Powell’s Press Conference (2:30 PM ET, June 18)**

- Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely:

- Reaffirm a **"wait-and-see" approach**, citing trade policy risks and sticky inflation .

- Downplay recession concerns while acknowledging **stagflationary risks** (slower growth + elevated inflation) .

- Signal openness to **flexible inflation targeting** (FIT) over average inflation targeting (FAIT) for better policy agility .

### **4. Market & Political Context**

- **Tariff impacts**: The Fed is monitoring Trump’s trade policies, which could exacerbate inflation or weaken growth, but data lags mean no immediate action .

- **Political pressure**: President Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not cutting rates, but the Fed remains independent .

### **5. Future Rate Cut Expectations**

- The next likely rate cut is projected for **September 2025**, contingent on clearer inflation and labor market trends .

- Markets anticipate **50–75bps of total cuts in 2025**, with further easing in 2026 .