#FOMCMeeting Interest rates on hold

The Federal Reserve is almost certain (about 99.9%) to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, where it’s stood since December .

Dot-plot signals hawkish tilt

The updated Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) is expected to show fewer rate cuts than previously signaled. Many analysts expect just one cut in 2025 (down from two earlier) .

Geopolitical & tariff risks looming

Middle East tensions and recent U.S. tariffs have raised concerns about higher inflation via oil and import prices. Fed officials are heeding these risks and have emphasized caution .

Cautious, data-driven stance

Despite inflation moving closer to the 2% target and a still‑strong labor market, the Fed is taking a “wait‑and‑see” approach. They want to see clearer signals—either inflation cooling sustainably or labor market softening—before making a move .

---

📅 Timeline to Watch

Event Time (EST)

Policy decision released 2 p.m. on June 18

Chair Powell’s press conference 2:30 p.m. – after the announcement

---

What It Means for You

Borrowers: Rate increases are unlikely—for now—but loans and mortgages stay at elevated costs.

Savers: Current rates remain favorable for savings and CDs.

Markets: Q3 has become the focus for a possible first rate cut. Futures markets put the odds around ~60% for September .