#FOMCMeeting Here are the key takeaways from the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:

📌 Policy Decision

No change: The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 4.25 %–4.50 %, maintaining the pause in rate cuts that began in September 2024 (federalreserve.gov, reuters.com).

Officials emphasized a “wait‑and‑see” stance, noting that both future rate cuts and hikes depend on evolving economic conditions, especially inflation and employment

🧠 Economic Assessment

Growth: Economic activity is expanding steadily, though May’s retail sales dipped 0.9%, signaling potential cooling in consumer spending

Labor market: The unemployment rate remains low (~4.2 %), but some labor market indicators are showing signs of softening

Inflation: Broadly “somewhat elevated,” sticky core inflation, rising energy prices, and escalating tariffs continue to pose upside risks

🌍 Global & Political Context

Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have triggered volatility in oil prices, adding inflation risks

Tariffs: Trump-era trade actions are expected to keep inflation elevated, prompting caution; President Trump has publicly urged steeper rate cuts and criticized Chair Powell

📊 Dot Plot & Outlook

The updated “dot plot” is expected to show fewer cuts in 2025, downgrading earlier forecasts of multiple rate cuts to potentially just one or two

Markets now price the first rate cut around September, with better odds by December .

🗓️ Forward Guidance

The Fed plans to release its full Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the dot plot, alongside the policy statement.

Chair Powell will elaborate on the decision and outlook during his press conference scheduled for June 18, shortly after 2 p.m. EDT

✅ Bottom Line

The Fed remains firmly on hold, balancing strong labor market conditions and cooling inflation against fresh uncertainties: trade, geopolitics, and potential economic deceleration. Future rate cuts remain possible—most likely starting in late summer or fall, contingent on upcoming data and global developments.