$BTC
Bitcoin Daily Trend Analysis (Must Read for Contract Traders)
1. Key Points to Focus On
- The current price is $104,859, having broken below the Bollinger Band (BOLL) middle line ($105,820), with bears in control. The lower support level of $101,891 is a critical defense line; if breached, it may trigger an accelerated decline.
- There is heavy resistance above: the Bollinger Band middle line at $105,820 overlaps with yesterday's high of $108,100. If the rebound cannot break through these two price levels, it presents a good shorting opportunity.
2. Indicator Signal Interpretation
- MACD Indicator: The death cross continues to widen (DIF < DEA, green bar value -380), with downward momentum strengthening. Caution is advised when attempting to catch a bottom at this time.
- RSI Indicator: The three lines (40/48/52) are all below 50, indicating a bearish market sentiment. However, it has not yet entered the oversold zone (<30), suggesting that the downward trend may still have room to continue.
3. Volume Hides Risks
The current trading volume is only 9,800, significantly below the 5-day average volume of 13,300. This decrease in volume during a decline means bulls are offering no resistance, and caution is warranted that a slow decline could evolve into a crash.
4. Contract Trading Precautions
- High Leverage Risks: The current price is only 3% away from the strong support level of $101,891, making it easy to face liquidation due to market fluctuations when using 100x leverage.
- Beware of False Rebounds: Since the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, any low-volume rebound (especially if it cannot break through $105,820) is a good shorting opportunity.
Trading Strategy
- Shorting Advice: When the price rebounds to the $105,500 - $106,000 range, consider shorting in batches, with a stop-loss set above the Bollinger Band middle line ($106,200).
- Longing Timing: Wait for two signals: first, an increase in volume and a valid breakthrough of the Bollinger Band middle line; second, a sharp drop in price to around $101,900, with the RSI indicator below 30.
- Position Control: Do not exceed 5% of your capital for a single position to avoid depletion of funds due to market fluctuations.
Summary: The current daily level shows a clear bearish trend, and it is advisable to short with the trend. Patience is required to wait for clear signals to go long, while keeping leverage below 20x to ensure fund safety. Remember, surviving in the market gives you the chance to turn things around!
