#美联储FOMC会议
Below is an analysis of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting from different perspectives:
Interest Rate Policy Perspective: The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50% multiple times, indicating that the current policy is in a wait-and-see mode. The dot plot shows two expected rate cuts in 2025, with the policy path remaining unchanged for now, but it will be adjusted flexibly based on economic data. If the economy worsens, there is room for rate cuts; if inflation remains uncontrolled, high rates will be maintained.
Economic Situation Perspective: Economic growth expectations have been downgraded, with the GDP growth rate forecast for 2025 lowered from 1.8% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.4%. However, inflation remains stubborn, with the core PCE inflation rate revised up to 2.8%. The risks to economic growth are biased downwards, while inflation risks are biased upwards.
Market Impact Perspective: The decisions made at the FOMC meeting have a significant impact on financial markets. If a rate cut signal is released, the U.S. dollar may face short-term pressure, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, gold prices may rise due to safe-haven sentiment, and U.S. stocks and other risk assets will also be affected, with their trends depending on market expectations regarding economic prospects and policy adjustments.
