What events have shaken up the Bitcoin market in the last 24 hours? From rising geopolitical tensions to announcements from leading figures in the financial and tech worlds, we analyze the main factors that could influence the performance of the world's leading cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrencies Show Resilience: Bitcoin Quickly Rebounds from Israel-Iran Tensions
As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the total crypto market capitalization lost about $80 billion in a matter of hours late Monday, falling to around $3.44 trillion , after Bitcoin saw a decline of more than $2,000 , falling to around $106,500 , before quickly starting to recover and moving back above $107,000 .
The decline was caused by an announcement by US President Donald Trump , who called for the “evacuation of Tehran” , while the exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran continued for the fourth consecutive day . The tycoon then used his social media platform to state that “Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons”.
Meanwhile, other countries, including China and Russia , have also called on their citizens to evacuate the Iranian capital, as military operations intensify. The message appears to be part of a coordinated strategy to increase pressure on Iran , pushing it to the negotiating table under a veiled threat of military intervention .
“American forces maintain a defensive posture, and that has not changed. We will defend the interests of the United States,” White House spokesman Alex Pfeiffer said, denying fake news that air strikes were imminent .
On blockchain forecasting platform Polymarket , the probability of the United States taking military action against Iran before the end of the month has risen to 67%.
Markets Don't Believe in World War III
The unusually moderate reaction of the cryptocurrency market to recent geopolitical events raises the question of a possible structural change: are digital assets perhaps becoming increasingly resilient to global instabilities ? In the past, international crises, military tensions or political uncertainties generated strong shocks in crypto markets, often considered among the most volatile and risk-sensitive assets. However, today we observe a much more contained response, which could indicate a phase of maturation of the sector.
“If there were even a 50% chance of World War III right now, the S&P 500 would not be just 2% away from its all-time high,” the Kobeissi Letter noted.
A Rare Convergence Among Investors Outlines a New Attitude Toward Bitcoin
Bitcoin started the week on a positive note, moving back above $107,000 , after recovering from a downturn caused by tensions between Israel and Iran . Interestingly, both retail investors and whales appear to be holding firm.
According to CryptoQuant data , Bitcoin inflows on Binance from both categories – whales and small investors – have fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the current market cycle . This rare behavioral convergence signals a clear preference for holding positions rather than selling. The fact that both groups are showing a wait-and-see attitude suggests high confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential .
Historically, synchronized inflows from whales and retail have been observed at market highs. The current decline in deposits, however, suggests a significant shift in strategy , with investors appearing to be positioning for potential future upside , rather than looking for the exit.
The sharp decline in activity could also reflect the wait for clearer macroeconomic signals before making major moves. Despite this, the cohesive behavior of large and small investors is considered a constructive signal for Bitcoin .
Volatility under control, but potential risks remain
QCP Capital also noted that implied volatility remained subdued , with BTC front-end volumes below the 40 mark and the VIX hovering around 20 — levels typically inconsistent with an elevated global risk environment . While flows into US Treasuries and Asian bonds suggest caution, markets have not yet moved into full “risk-off” mode .
Analysts warn, however, that an escalation — such as an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or direct U.S. military involvement — could trigger a much broader impact on markets. Paradoxically, such events could prove structurally bullish for Bitcoin , strengthening its role as an alternative safe haven.
Trump Media Files Application to Launch Spot Bitcoin, Ethereum ETF
Trump Media – the US company linked to the former president and operating through Truth Social, Truth+ and TruthFi – has filed an application with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a combined spot ETF that tracks the performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: Bitcoin and Ethereum . If approved, this financial instrument will directly hold BTC and ETH , with 75% of the assets under management (AUM) allocated to Bitcoin and the remaining 25% to Ethereum.
Confirming previous reports that Crypto.com will be the sole custodian of BTC and ETH for the ETF. Additionally, the crypto platform will also act as the primary execution agent , as well as a staking and liquidity provider . The ETF’s sponsor will be Yorkville America Digital , and if approved by the SEC, the ETF will be listed on the NYSE Arca .
The announcement clarifies that the fund will not be considered a “security” in the traditional sense, specifying that the shares “may not be sold or offered until the registration statement is made effective.”
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