Bulls Tiring as Resistance Holds – Will $104K Crack Next or Rebound Follow?
$BTC /USDT Technical Outlook – June 17, 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $105,600, down 1.12% on the 6-hour chart, showing signs of fading bullish momentum after a failed attempt to reclaim the $110,000 zone. Price action over the past two weeks has shown a clear pattern of lower highs, indicating weakening buying pressure amid overhead resistance near $110,500–$111,000. The recent high of $110,530.17, marked on June 12, failed to hold, and BTC has since retraced, testing key short-term moving averages.
The 7-period MA has now crossed below the 25-period MA and is trading under price at $106,622, acting as dynamic resistance. The 25 and 99 MAs are converging just above current levels ($106,232 and $106,448), forming a resistance cluster that is capping upside movements. This confluence zone is critical—any sustained breakout above $106,500 could attract fresh buyers and open up a move back to $108,800 and potentially $111,000.
However, the short-term momentum is leaning bearish. The price has printed a lower high after rejecting $110K, and volume on green candles is fading while red candle volume is picking up—indicating distribution. The recent attempt to break above resistance failed sharply, and the resulting red candle shows sellers regaining short-term control. The current support lies near $104,333, with a further critical floor at $102,099. A breakdown below these levels would signal a shift to a more bearish medium-term structure, exposing the $100,372 low from earlier in June.
Despite the price dip, the volume analysis shows an encouraging 30-day gain of 2.39% and a 90-day surge of nearly 30%, suggesting BTC still has broad market interest. However, over the last 7 days, price is down 2.53%, and today's 2% drop could be the early phase of a deeper pullback if support zones fail.
In summary, BTC is stuck in a consolidation zone between $104,000 and $108,800 with a bearish short-term bias. Bulls must defend $104,000 or risk a slide to $100,000 and below. For buyers, a reclaim and close above $106,600–$107,000 would re-ignite bullish momentum, while sellers will aim to push below $104K for a breakdown continuation. Eyes remain on the next 6–12 hours for confirmation of direction.
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