#FOMCMeeting The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, aligning with expectations amid persistent inflation and elevated trade and geopolitical uncertainty . Officials pointed to stubborn inflation pressures fueled by tariffs and oil volatility from Middle East tensions, even as retail sales and industrial production softened . Labor markets remain resilient—with May unemployment steady at 4.2% and job gains modest—supporting a cautious stance .

Market sentiment now leans toward Fed rate cuts beginning in September, backed by cooler CPI/PPI readings and softer labor indicators . Traders expect roughly two quarter‑point cuts by year‑end . Despite political pressure from President Trump to lower rates aggressively, the Fed remains focused on data—balancing inflation risks against global and trade uncertainties .

All eyes are now on Powell’s post‑meeting press conference and the updated economic projections for clues on timing and quantitative policy outlook.