Yesterday, the BTC market showed a sideways upward trend, reaching a peak of 107759.8 points and finally closing at 107374.9 points, with a daily volatility of 3.18% and a price increase of 1.75%. However, the closing price is below the 5-day moving average, and from a longer time frame analysis, the bearish forces currently dominate.

As of the time of writing, there were only 50 projects rising, while as many as 500 projects were falling, indicating extremely weak overall performance. Reviewing yesterday's analysis, once BTC and Ethereum effectively break below the 233 moving average on the 4-hour chart, the market is likely to decline rapidly. Last night's market movement validated some viewpoints, as a small-scale strong rebound occurred at this key position, but this is very likely to be a trap for buyers. This morning, the price trend resembled a 'draw door,' quickly giving back gains, almost entirely confirming the judgment that once this position is broken, the market will decline rapidly. The current market trend is filled with uncertainty, so it is essential to remain highly vigilant. Currently, the price has fallen below a critical level, and if the U.S. market confirms an effective decline, the possibility of a sharp drop is very high, especially for Ethereum, which requires close attention. From a larger support level perspective, the important support level for BTC is at 98000 points, while for Ethereum, it is at 2320 points.

From today's overall trend observation, the bearish advantage is significant in the BTC market. As of market opening, the BTC price is below 106000 points. If BTC directly breaks below the 233 moving average on the 4-hour chart tonight, the market is likely to decline rapidly, and this drop is unlikely to be a trap for sellers. Recently, the market has fluctuated repeatedly within a certain range, frequently showing small-scale 'draw doors' and V-shaped reversal trends, making short-term operations extremely challenging, and the trend of Ethereum is similar.

In my personal opinion, based on today's market development trend, BTC and Ethereum may choose to break downward this week. Once the downward breakout direction is confirmed, it will inevitably be accompanied by a significant pullback, and it may even initiate a weekly downward trend. However, the market trend is difficult to predict accurately. I have previously emphasized that analyzing the current market from a larger-scale bearish perspective makes operations relatively easier.