*What Happened at the June FOMC Meeting**

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened June 17–18 in Washington to decide U.S. monetary policy. As widely expected, the Committee **kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%**—marking no change for the third consecutive meeting ([reuters.com][1], [pepperstone.com][2]). This decision reflects a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals.

---

### **Economic Data & Key Drivers**

| Factor | Recent Trends &

| **Inflation** | CPI and PPI softened in May, easing some pressure. Headline & core inflation remain above the Fed’s 2% target, influenced partly by tariffs ([fxleaders.com][3], [kiplinger.com][4]). |

| **Labor Market** | Steady unemployment (\~4.2%), solid job gains, though some signs of cooling . |

| **Geopolitical & Trade** | Uncertainty from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff actions affected oil prices and inflation outlook . |

| **Global Risk & Fiscal** | Elevated federal deficits and trade friction add further complexity .

### **Committee Commentary & Outlook**

* The Fed adopted a **"wait-and-see"** approach, emphasizing data dependency. Policymakers refrained from indicating imminent rate cuts ([investopedia.com][5]).

* Powell noted inflation is making **modest progress**, but clarity is needed before any pivot ([principalam.com][6]).

* The Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) suggests **fewer cuts in 2025**, with first cut likely in **September or later**, indicating steady caution ([morningstar.co.uk][7]).

* Market odds for a June cut were near zero (\~0.1%), with over **99% probability** of rate hold ([fxleaders.com][3]).