$ETH Recently, Ethereum is definitely facing a black swan
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the price has broken below the upward trend line, the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average forming a death cross, the DIFF line in the MACD indicator has crossed down through the DEA line, and the green momentum bars are increasing, indicating a bearish trend.
Capital Flow: Data from large transfers on the Ethereum chain shows that in the past week, addresses holding more than 1000 ETH have increased their transfers to exchanges, totaling over 500,000 ETH transferred out. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust premium rate is around -15%, indicating strong selling intent from institutional investors. In the derivatives market, short positions account for over 60% of the open contracts for Ethereum futures and options, and large institutional investors' short positions in the CME Ethereum futures market have increased by 30% over the past two weeks.
Ecosystem Competition and Upgrades: Emerging public chains like Solana and Avalanche are attracting a large number of developers and users with high performance and low fees, while Ethereum's transaction fees are high and the network is congested, causing some users and projects to drift away. The planned upgrade to enhance Ethereum's performance, Proto-Danksharding, has been delayed due to technical challenges, undermining market confidence.
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