1. Bitcoin Price and Technical Dynamics
Price Performance: Bitcoin's current price fluctuates around $107,500, with a daily high of $108,900 and a low of $106,115, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $31.5 billion and a total market capitalization maintaining at the $2.14 trillion level. Technical indicators show a 'triangle convergence' structure on the daily chart; if it breaks through the resistance level of $108,000-$109,000, it could open an upward channel towards $112,000 or even $140,000.
On-chain Data: Large wallet addresses (holding 100-10,000 BTC) have recently shown signs of selling, but institutions continue to accumulate, such as MicroStrategy, which added 10,100 BTC at an average price of $104,080 over the past week, bringing its total holdings to 592,100 BTC with an average cost of $70,666.
2. Ethereum Upgrades and Market Performance
Pectra Upgrade: Ethereum completes the Pectra upgrade (Prague+Electra), focusing on enhancing scalability, security, and user experience, including modular smart contracts, lightweight nodes, and staking optimization, laying the foundation for large-scale applications. Following the upgrade, Ethereum’s price briefly surged to $2,680, currently retreating to around $2,640 for consolidation, with a trading volume of $23.1 billion.
Security Plan: The Ethereum Foundation launches a 'Trillion Dollar Security Plan' aimed at building underlying infrastructure capable of supporting trillions of dollars in value, attracting institutional participation in on-chain asset storage.
3. Institutional and Policy Dynamics
ETF Competition: Trump’s Truth Social submits a dual cryptocurrency spot ETF application for Bitcoin and Ethereum, forming direct competition with institutions like BlackRock. The U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 2,864 BTC in a single day (with BlackRock accounting for 2,272), while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of 3,748 ETH.
Regulatory Progress: The U.S. Senate passes the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act), providing a federal framework for stablecoin regulation, reducing market uncertainty; Hong Kong plans to expedite stablecoin license applications, and several exchanges have obtained operating licenses under the EU MiCA framework.
4. Exchange and Project Dynamics
Exchange Adjustments: Binance adjusts Alpha point rules, cancels point calculations for certain trading pairs, and launches airdrops for tokens like SPK (Spark) and ULTI (Ultiverse). South Korea's Bithumb adjusts withdrawal delay time to 72 hours due to phishing attack risks.
Risk Warning: On-chain analyst ZachXBT warns of a connection between the WhiteRockFinance project and the ZKasino fraud case, calling for exchanges to delist its tokens; Meme coin ZEUS is reported to have a team that manipulated the market, cautioning against risks.
5. Market Risk and Operational Recommendations
Risk Points: Bitcoin faces technical pressure from a 'double top' pattern, and outflows from stablecoins (like USDT) suggest potential selling pressure; geopolitical issues in the Middle East and macroeconomic factors (like Federal Reserve interest rate policies) may trigger short-term volatility.
Strategic Recommendations: Short-term traders may focus on the range of $105,000-$108,000 for high selling and low buying; a breakout above $109,000 could lead to additional positions; long-term investors are advised to hold core positions, with a pullback to the $100,000-$104,000 range as an accumulation window.